Taranova et al. (2026) Statistical Analysis and Indicators of Climatic Instability of Atmospheric Precipitation in the Ternopil Region (1969-2024)

Identification

• Journal: THE SCIENTIFIC ISSUES OF TERNOPIL VOLODYMYR HNATIUK NATIONAL PEDAGOGICAL UNIVERSITY SERIES GEOGRAPHY
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-02
• Authors: Natalia Taranova, Pavlo Flinta, Anastasiia KALCHUK
• DOI: 10.25128/2519-4577.26.1.6

Research Groups

• Department of Geography and Methods of its Teaching, Volodymyr Hnatiuk Ternopil National Pedagogical University

Short Summary

This study statistically analyzes the spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric precipitation in Ukraine's Ternopil region from 1969-2024, revealing increasing climatic instability and hydroclimatic risks, particularly in the western part of the region, by introducing a novel "climatic swings" indicator.

Objective

• To analyze the spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric precipitation in the Ternopil region over a 55-year period and to calculate the "climatic swings" indicator to assess climatic instability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Ternopil region, Ukraine, specifically at four meteorological stations (Ternopil, Kremenets, Berezhany, Chortkiv).
• Temporal Scale: 55-year period (1969-2024), with a specific focus on the modern period (2010-2024).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical analysis.
• Data sources: Observational data from four meteorological stations (Ternopil, Kremenets, Berezhany, Chortkiv).

Main Results

• The "climatic swings" indicator, representing the integral amplitude of inter-annual extreme humidification, was calculated for the first time for the Ternopil region.
• The western part of the region (Berezhany) exhibits the greatest climatic instability, with an amplitude of 675 mm.
• The central part of the region (Ternopil) is the most climatically stable, with an amplitude of 441 mm.
• The modern period (2010-2024) is characterized by increased contrast in precipitation, showing a higher frequency of alternation between extremely dry (e.g., 2011, 2019) and abnormally wet years.
• These identified trends indicate a destabilization of the water regime and an increase in hydroclimatic risks for agricultural production in the Ternopil region.

Contributions

• Introduction and first-time application of the "climatic swings" indicator to quantify inter-annual extreme humidification in the Ternopil region.
• Detailed spatio-temporal analysis of precipitation variability, identifying specific areas of high and low climatic instability within the region.
• Highlighting the recent intensification of extreme precipitation events (both dry and wet) and their implications for regional agricultural risks.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Taranova2026Statistical,
  author = {Taranova, Natalia and Flinta, Pavlo and KALCHUK, Anastasiia},
  title = {Statistical Analysis and Indicators of Climatic Instability of Atmospheric Precipitation in the Ternopil Region (1969-2024)},
  journal = {THE SCIENTIFIC ISSUES OF TERNOPIL VOLODYMYR HNATIUK NATIONAL PEDAGOGICAL UNIVERSITY SERIES GEOGRAPHY},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.25128/2519-4577.26.1.6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.25128/2519-4577.26.1.6}
}