Casadiego-Arévalo et al. (2026) Analysis of historical water availability and projected surface water trends for decision-making: the case of Mexico

Identification

• Journal: Frontiers in Environmental Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-23
• Authors: Fra Filippo Casadiego-Arévalo, Katerina Foka Sandoval, Ricardo Morales Trosino, Miguel Angel Altamirano del Carmen, Paola Massyel García-Meneses, Marisa Mazari-Hiríart
• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1872474

Research Groups

• Posgrado en Ciencias de la Sostenibilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
• Laboratorio Nacional de Ciencias de la Sostenibilidad (LANCIS), Instituto de Ecología, UNAM
• Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)

Short Summary

This study analyzes historical water availability and projected surface water trends in Mexico to support decision-making towards integrated water resource management. The results indicate that 54.2% of the national territory currently experiences some degree of water deficit, while 15% lacks both surface and groundwater availability.

Objective

• Analyze historical water availability and projected surface water trends in Mexico to inform decision-making on water resource management.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, with a focus on 13 Hydrological-Administrative Regions (HAR) and 37 Hydrological Regions (HR).
• Temporal Scale: Historical data from 2013 to 2023, with projections for 2055 under the SSP2-6.0 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Xanthos hydrologic model version 2.0.
• Data sources: Official concession data, hydrological and climate models, spatially explicit maps from CONAGUA (2025).

Main Results

• The aquifers with the greatest relative decline were Laguna de Hormigas (-226.6%), Cabo San Lucas (-180.2%), Valle del Mezquital (-156.0%), and Santa María del Río (-100.4%).
• In 2023, around 28.8% (56.6 million hectares) of Mexico has no surface water availability.
• The minimum concessioned superficial water volume to be reduced in areas without superficial water availability is approximately 2,600 hm^3/year in 2023 and 12,000 hm^3/year in 2055.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of historical and future water availability at a national scale.
• The results can inform decision-making towards integrated water resource management in Mexico.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{CasadiegoArévalo2026Analysis,
  author = {Casadiego-Arévalo, Fra Filippo and Sandoval, Katerina Foka and Trosino, Ricardo Morales and Carmen, Miguel Angel Altamirano del and García-Meneses, Paola Massyel and Mazari-Hiríart, Marisa},
  title = {Analysis of historical water availability and projected surface water trends for decision-making: the case of Mexico},
  journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2026.1872474},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1872474}
}