Li et al. (2026) Scenario-driven optimization of land-use/land-cover conversion pathways to improve ecosystem service performance in the Yellow River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Frontiers in Environmental Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: Lingqi Li, Chang Liu, Enhui Jiang, Jinhan Liu
• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1918318

Research Groups

• Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research
• Henan Key Laboratory of Ecological Protection and Restoration of Yellow River Basin

Short Summary

This study projected the spatiotemporal patterns of five ecosystem services (ESs) in the Yellow River Basin, China, under different land-use/land-cover (LULC) scenarios. The results showed that LULC optimization can improve ES performance, with a preferred conversion pathway identified as moderate cropland and undeveloped land conversion into grassland and forest.

Objective

• Project the spatiotemporal patterns of five ESs from 2030 to 2100 at different scales in the Yellow River Basin.
• Construct an integrated ES index (IESI) to evaluate the performance of multiple ESs and apply it in multi-scale assessments.
• Examine the spatial associations between socioeconomic factors and IESI across different periods.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pixel, prefecture-level cities, provincial boundaries, and the entire river basin.
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2100, divided into historical (1980–2020), near future (2030–2050), and distant future (2055–2100) periods.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: InVEST model for ES metrics calculation.
• Data sources:
  • Precipitation and evapotranspiration from National Earth system Science data center.
  • LULC data from Chen et al. (2022).
  • Soil data from Harmonized world soil database (HWSD) v2.0.
  • Watersheds from Yellow river conservancy commission.

Main Results

• The results showed that before LULC optimization, basin-wide water yield exhibited a declining trend from the historical to future periods.
• More diverse LULC configurations were generally accompanied by more synergies among ESs.
• IESI broadly increased, except in “spatially clustered low-performance” or “spatial mismatch” areas.

Contributions

• This study provides insights for ES management and sustainable development in large river basins.
• The results can support water and soil resource management and the development of ES strategies.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Li2026Scenariodriven,
  author = {Li, Lingqi and Liu, Chang and Jiang, Enhui and Liu, Jinhan},
  title = {Scenario-driven optimization of land-use/land-cover conversion pathways to improve ecosystem service performance in the Yellow River Basin},
  journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2026.1918318},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1918318}
}