Wang et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains: Trends, Propagation Processes, and Triggering Thresholds

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Identification

• Journal: Agriculture
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-30
• Authors: Peng Wang, Congcang Tang, Hongfei Tao, Jiang Li, Xiaomeng Lou, Zhenkun Zhang, Haonan Zhu
• DOI: 10.3390/agriculture16151636

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigates the propagation of meteorological drought into agricultural drought on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (1980–2022), finding that agricultural droughts typically lag meteorological ones by 1–3 months with triggering thresholds between −0.81 and −0.71.

Objective

• To characterize the spatiotemporal evolution, propagation processes, and triggering conditions of the transition from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China (specifically focusing on the central-eastern region and the western-to-central agro-pastoral ecotone).
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2022 (monthly resolution).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), three-dimensional drought-event identification, Mann–Kendall trend test, cross-wavelet transform, wavelet coherence analysis, and Copula analysis.
• Data sources: ERA5-Land reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Main Results

• Event Frequency and Severity: Identified 92 meteorological drought events and 65 agricultural drought events; agricultural droughts exhibited greater persistence and cumulative severity.
• Spatial Distribution: Meteorological droughts were primarily concentrated in the central-eastern region, while agricultural droughts occurred predominantly in the western-to-central agro-pastoral ecotone.
• Propagation Dynamics:
  • Propagation lag: Generally 1–3 months.
  • Dominant propagation periods: 2–8 months (most frequently 3–6 months).
  • Seasonal variation: Propagation is fastest in summer, most persistent in autumn, and weakest in winter.
• Triggering Thresholds: The probability of propagation increases with meteorological drought severity, with triggering thresholds ranging from −0.81 to −0.71, showing significant seasonal and spatial heterogeneity.

Contributions

• Established an "event–process–threshold" framework that links individual drought-event evolution with lagged propagation characteristics and probabilistic triggering conditions, providing a more comprehensive quantitative approach than previous correlation-based studies.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Wang, Peng and Tang, Congcang and Tao, Hongfei and Li, Jiang and Lou, Xiaomeng and Zhang, Zhenkun and Zhu, Haonan},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains: Trends, Propagation Processes, and Triggering Thresholds},
  journal = {Agriculture},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/agriculture16151636},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16151636}
}