Seamon (2026) Spatially Varying Climate Importance in United States Agricultural Insurance Claim Severity

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Identification

• Journal: Agriculture
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-16
• Authors: Erich Seamon
• DOI: 10.3390/agriculture16181978

Research Groups

• Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara

Short Summary

This study investigates the geographic variation in climate predictors of agricultural insurance claims across the conterminous United States, demonstrating that a single national profile cannot adequately represent local relationships between climate and claim severity.

Objective

• Investigate how climate variables influence agricultural insurance claim severity at different spatial scales.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: County-level observations across the conterminous United States.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly data from 1994 through 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GWRF) models.
• Data sources: County-level agricultural insurance claims, climate variables (precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, soil moisture), and seasonal controls.

Main Results

• Total positive climate importance was greatest in the Great Plains and Midwest but varied by commodity and cause.
• Maximum temperature ranked first in five of the six models, while actual evapotranspiration ranked first for soybean excess moisture claims.
• Corn and soybean drought models emphasized maximum temperature and vapor pressure deficit, while excess moisture models were more heterogeneous.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the complex relationships between climate and agricultural insurance claim severity at different spatial scales, highlighting the importance of considering local conditions when developing climate-informed risk management strategies.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (Award #XXXXX) and the United States Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture (Award #YYYYY).

Citation

@article{Seamon2026Spatially,
  author = {Seamon, Erich},
  title = {Spatially Varying Climate Importance in United States Agricultural Insurance Claim Severity},
  journal = {Agriculture},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/agriculture16181978},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16181978}
}