Gao et al. (2026) Hydrothermal Balance and Diurnal Temperature Range Jointly Explain Maize Yield Variability in a Semi-Arid Region of North China

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Identification

• Journal: Agronomy
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-16
• Authors: Huizhou Gao, Feng Caiping, Lulu Hou, Ludan Pan, Dandan Zhang, Shengping Li, Xueping Wu
• DOI: 10.3390/agronomy16161575

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the drivers of maize yield variability in Lyuliang City, North China, from 2005 to 2024, concluding that hydrothermal balance (specifically the aridity index) is a more significant predictor of yield than precipitation or temperature alone.

Objective

• To identify the dominant climatic predictors of maize yield variability and determine the relative contributions of hydrothermal variability, rising evaporative demand, and drought extremes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lyuliang City, North China (semi-arid region).
• Temporal Scale: 2005–2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Sen’s slope trend analysis, Pearson correlation, candidate regression models, standardized coefficients, and generalized additive models (GAMs).
• Data sources: Yield statistics and ChinaMet climate data.

Main Results

• Yield and Climate Trends: Maize yield showed no significant trend (0.01 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), while potential evapotranspiration increased (2.81 mm yr⁻¹), and both diurnal temperature range (−0.04 °C yr⁻¹) and minimum SPEI (−0.04 yr⁻¹) decreased significantly.
• Key Correlations: Maize yield was most strongly correlated with the aridity index (r = 0.72) and water deficit (r = 0.72).
• Predictive Modeling: A regression model including the aridity index, growing-season temperature, diurnal temperature range, and minimum SPEI explained 70% of interannual yield variation.
• Driver Impact: The aridity index was the strongest positive predictor, whereas the diurnal temperature range had a significant negative association with yield.
• Drought Observation: Despite the intensification of extreme dry conditions (decreasing minimum SPEI), it was not directly associated with annual yield, suggesting the influence of drought timing and management buffering.

Contributions

• The research demonstrates that hydrothermal balance provides a superior explanation for maize yield variability in rain-fed semi-arid regions compared to individual climatic variables, highlighting the critical role of evaporative demand and temperature variability.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Gao2026Hydrothermal,
  author = {Gao, Huizhou and Caiping, Feng and Hou, Lulu and Pan, Ludan and Zhang, Dandan and Li, Shengping and Wu, Xueping},
  title = {Hydrothermal Balance and Diurnal Temperature Range Jointly Explain Maize Yield Variability in a Semi-Arid Region of North China},
  journal = {Agronomy},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/agronomy16161575},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16161575}
}