Wang et al. (2026) Evaluating the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Divergent Drivers of Agricultural Drought in the North China Plain Using SSMI

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Identification

• Journal: Agronomy
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Donglin Wang, Xiaoran Zhao, Lishou Yan, Shaobo Liu, Qin’ge Dong
• DOI: 10.3390/agronomy16181779

Research Groups

• Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation (Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River and Huai River)
• Collaborators from University of Beijing

Short Summary

This study investigates drought evolution and driving mechanisms in the North China Plain using a multi-source dataset, highlighting the critical role of groundwater in regulating soil moisture and the need for region-tailored mitigation strategies.

Objective

• Investigate the trend and variability of agricultural droughts in the North China Plain under climate change and human activities

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (North China Plain)
• Temporal Scale: 1982–2022

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) construction, MMK trend test, Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC), sub-regional Pearson correlation
• Data sources: ERA5-Land root-zone soil-moisture data, groundwater-level dataset, effective-irrigated-area dataset

Main Results

• Regional-average SSMI showed a significant decreasing trend at a rate of −0.013 decade−1 (p < 0.001)
• SPEI presented a non-significant increasing trend of 0.145 × 10−2 decade−1 (p < 0.001), indicating hysteresis between agricultural and meteorological droughts
• Groundwater level is the dominant explanatory factor for agricultural drought (POSC = 70.53%, AWC = 0.93)
• Driving mechanisms of agricultural drought exhibit remarkable north–south differentiation

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the complex relationships between groundwater, soil moisture, and agricultural droughts in the North China Plain
• The findings support refined drought early-warning systems and region-tailored mitigation strategies for sustainable agricultural development

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1508404)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42077013)

Citation

@article{Wang2026Evaluating,
  author = {Wang, Donglin and Zhao, Xiaoran and Yan, Lishou and Liu, Shaobo and Dong, Qin’ge},
  title = {Evaluating the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Divergent Drivers of Agricultural Drought in the North China Plain Using SSMI},
  journal = {Agronomy},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/agronomy16181779},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16181779}
}