Alimkulov et al. (2026) Transformation of the Hydrological Regime of the Shu–Talas River Basin Under the Influence of Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors

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Identification

• Journal: Applied Sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-29
• Authors: Sayat K. Alimkulov, Lyazzat K. Makhmudova, Elmira K. Talipova, Nailya Moldakhanova, Oirat Alzhanov, Т.А. Тillakarim, Aizat Yeltay, Nurgalym T. Serikbay
• DOI: 10.3390/app16199688

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrology and RHEA, University of Freiburg
• Department of Hydrology, Lomonosov Moscow State University
• National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting (NCHMF), Kazakhstan
• Kyrgyz Republic's Ministry of Energy and Water Resources

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of climate change and economic activities on river hydrological regimes in the Shu–Talas basin, identifying significant changes in air temperature, atmospheric circulation, and streamflow patterns.

Objective

• Investigate the role of climate change and economic activities in shaping modern river hydrological regimes in the Shu-Talas basin

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Shu–Talas basin located in Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic, covering an area of approximately 130,000 km².
• Temporal Scale: The analysis spans two reference periods: 1961–1990 and 1991–2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: HBV-light model for hydrological modeling
• Data sources: Streamflow data from 14 gauging stations, climate data (air temperature and precipitation) from national meteorological services

Main Results

• A steady increase in air temperature was identified, with no statistically significant changes in precipitation.
• Shifts in atmospheric circulation were revealed, with an intensification of zonal (westerly) and a weakening of easterly circulation types.
• Changes in mean discharge were relatively small, but seasonal redistribution of streamflow was pronounced.
• Winter discharge increased by 4.02–7.11%, while autumn discharge decreased by 10.98–23.09%.
• Analysis of normalized flow duration curves showed changes most pronounced in high and intermediate daily flows.

Contributions

The study provides new insights into the impact of climate change on river hydrological regimes, highlighting the need for adaptive water management strategies to ensure sustainable water resources management in the basin.

Funding

• This research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources" (FKZ 01LP1601A).
• Additional support was provided by the Kyrgyz Republic's Ministry of Energy and Water Resources through the project "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Shu-Talas Basin".

Citation

@article{Alimkulov2026Transformation,
  author = {Alimkulov, Sayat K. and Makhmudova, Lyazzat K. and Talipova, Elmira K. and Moldakhanova, Nailya and Alzhanov, Oirat and Тillakarim, Т.А. and Yeltay, Aizat and Serikbay, Nurgalym T.},
  title = {Transformation of the Hydrological Regime of the Shu–Talas River Basin Under the Influence of Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors},
  journal = {Applied Sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/app16199688},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/app16199688}
}