Akzharkynova et al. (2026) Climate-Driven Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts on Glacier Runoff Dynamics in the Northern Tien Shan

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-03
• Authors: Aigul N. Akzharkynova, Berik Iskakov, Gulnara Iskaliyeva, Nurmakhambet Sydyk, Rustam G. Abdrakhimov, Alima Amangeldi, Aibek Merekeyev, A. Chigrinets
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17010063

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This study quantifies long-term changes in glacier area, firn-line elevation, and glacier runoff in the Northern Tien Shan from 1955 to 2021, revealing a significant decline in glacier area and meltwater contribution to annual discharge due to climate warming, despite an increase in total runoff.

Objective

• To quantify long-term changes in glacier area, firn-line elevation, and glacier runoff in the Northern Tien Shan from 1955 to 2021 to assess the impact of ongoing climate warming on water resources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern Tien Shan (Ile River basin, supplying Almaty, Kazakhstan).
• Temporal Scale: 1955 to 2021.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Empirical and semi-empirical runoff estimation methods.
• Data sources: Multi-decadal meteorological observations, hydrological records, multi-temporal Landsat-7/8 and Sentinel-2 imagery, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs).

Main Results

• Glacier area in the Northern Tien Shan declined by more than 45% to 60% since 1955.
• Firn-line altitude rose from approximately 3400 meters to 3700 meters.
• Mean summer air temperature at Mynzhylky station increased by 0.88 °C, indicating persistent warming at glacierized elevations.
• The contribution of glacier meltwater to annual discharge decreased from approximately 32% during 1955–1990 to approximately 25% during 1991–2021.
• Total and vegetation-period runoff increased due to modified seasonal hydrological conditions.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive long-term (1955–2021) quantification of glacier degradation and its impact on runoff in the Northern Tien Shan, a critical water source for Almaty.
• Demonstrates the direct link between climate warming, glacier retreat, and altered hydrological regimes in a vital glaciated region.
• Highlights the urgent need to integrate glacier degradation into water-resource management and long-term water-security assessments for the region.

Funding

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Akzharkynova2026ClimateDriven,
  author = {Akzharkynova, Aigul N. and Iskakov, Berik and Iskaliyeva, Gulnara and Sydyk, Nurmakhambet and Abdrakhimov, Rustam G. and Amangeldi, Alima and Merekeyev, Aibek and Chigrinets, A.},
  title = {Climate-Driven Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts on Glacier Runoff Dynamics in the Northern Tien Shan},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17010063},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010063}
}