González et al. (2026) Variability, Prediction, and Simulation of Rainfall Erosivity Risk in the State of Sinaloa, Northwest Mexico

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-14
• Authors: G. Camacho González, Omar Llanes Cárdenas, Nahid Pérez Ayala, Luz A. García Serrano, Román E. Parra Galaviz, Jeován A. Ávila Galaviz, Marco A. Arciniega Galaviz
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17010080

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study models and estimates the spatiotemporal variability of the Observed Rainfall Erosivity Risk (ORE) index for Sinaloa, Mexico, from 1969 to 2018, proposing a new methodology to predict and simulate ORE for agricultural land management.

Objective

• To model the Observed Rainfall Erosivity Risk (ORE) index, estimate its spatiotemporal variability, and predict (PRE) and simulate ORE for the state of Sinaloa.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: State of Sinaloa, Mexico (nine stations).
• Temporal Scale: 1969–2018 (50 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Calculation of five rainfall erosivity indices: modified Fournier index, precipitation concentration index, erosivity density (ED), total erosivity index (TEI), and rainfall erosivity factor.
  • Nonparametric trend analysis.
  • Multiple Nonlinear Regressions (MNR) to calculate PRE.
  • Cumulative distribution functions, adjusted return periods (ARPs), and the 99th percentile for PRE simulation.
• Data sources: Not explicitly specified, but implied to be rainfall data from observation stations.

Main Results

• ORE values ranged significantly from 51.39 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in 1970 (Culiacán) to 92679.40 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in 1998 (Sta. C. de Alaya).
• The year 1998 registered very high ORE across all nine stations.
• A significant increasing trend in ORE was found only for Culiacán, with ORE = 34.64 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹.
• The nine developed PRE models were significantly predictive, showing Spearman correlations greater than 0.280.
• Locations such as Guatenipa, Rosario, and Siqueros exhibited very high predicted PRE, with an average of one to eight extreme erosivity events projected per century.

Contributions

• Proposes a new methodology for calculating ORE and PRE, enhancing the understanding of rainfall erosivity risk.
• Provides a practical tool for developing strategies to manage and protect agricultural land, particularly in regions vital for food production.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{González2026Variability,
  author = {González, G. Camacho and Cárdenas, Omar Llanes and Ayala, Nahid Pérez and Serrano, Luz A. García and Galaviz, Román E. Parra and Galaviz, Jeován A. Ávila and Galaviz, Marco A. Arciniega},
  title = {Variability, Prediction, and Simulation of Rainfall Erosivity Risk in the State of Sinaloa, Northwest Mexico},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17010080},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010080}
}