Shi (2026) Multidecadal Variation Characteristics and Mechanism Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation During the Little Ice Age

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-15
• Authors: Guangxun Shi
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17010090

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This paper investigates the influence of volcanic activity on the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), revealing a significant 56-year periodicity and demonstrating that volcanic eruptions reduce ISM precipitation by weakening land-sea thermal contrast and shifting the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward.

Objective

• To investigate the influence of volcanic activity on multi-decadal variations and periodicity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation.
• To identify the mechanisms through which volcanic activity impacts ISM intensity and precipitation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Indian monsoon region, Eurasia, Indian Ocean, Northern Hemisphere, Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
• Temporal Scale: Multi-year, decadal, 56-year period, Little Ice Age (LIA).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: NNU-2K AF experiments, single-factor sensitivity experiments (likely climate model simulations).
• Data sources: Precipitation data from NNU-2K AF experiments, Little Ice Age (LIA) proxy data, precipitation data from single-factor sensitivity experiments.

Main Results

• A significant 56-year period is identified in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation, consistent across NNU-2K AF experiments, single-factor sensitivity experiments, and Little Ice Age (LIA) proxy data.
• Multi-decadal variations in ISM precipitation from AF experiments and single-factor sensitivity experiments show a correlation of 0.45 (p < 0.05), indicating a dependence on volcanic activity.
• Volcanic activity reduces ISM intensity and precipitation through two primary mechanisms:
  1. Cooling over Eurasia and warming of the Indian Ocean weaken the thermal contrast between land and sea.
  2. Enhanced volcanic activity induces widespread cooling across the Northern Hemisphere, shifting the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward, which reduces evaporative capacity and moisture content in the monsoon region.

Contributions

• Demonstrates a significant 56-year periodicity in ISM precipitation linked to volcanic activity.
• Quantifies the correlation between multi-decadal ISM variations and volcanic activity.
• Elucidates the physical mechanisms by which volcanic activity influences ISM precipitation, including changes in land-sea thermal contrast and ITCZ shifts.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Shi2026Multidecadal,
  author = {Shi, Guangxun},
  title = {Multidecadal Variation Characteristics and Mechanism Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation During the Little Ice Age},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17010090},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010090}
}