Sabljić et al. (2026) Remote Sensing and GIS Assessment of Drought Dynamics in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-24
• Authors: Luka Sabljić, Davorin Bajić, Slobodan Marković, Dragutin Adžić, Velibor Spalevic, Paul Sestraș, Dragoslav Pavić, Tin Lukić
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17020124

Research Groups

Not explicitly provided in the text.

Short Summary

This study explored the use of remote sensing and GIS to monitor drought in the Ukrina River Basin (2015–2024), integrating meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic drought signals. It identified key drought years and delineated a persistent drought-prone zone covering 40.02% of the basin, primarily in lowlands, offering a novel approach for chronic drought hotspot identification.

Objective

• To explore the potential of remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for basin-scale spatio-temporal monitoring of drought and its impacts in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, during the last decade (2015–2024).
• To integrate meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic drought signals and to delineate areas of long-term drought exposure.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina (basin-scale).
• Temporal Scale: Last decade (2015–2024).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month accumulation scales (using Gamma fitting).
  • Standardized Water Level Index (SWLI).
  • Temperature Condition Index (TCI).
  • Vegetation Condition Index (VCI).
  • Vegetation Health Index (VHI).
• Data sources:
  • CHIRPS precipitation data.
  • Available water-level records.
  • ERA5-Land runoff anomalies.
  • MODIS satellite data (for TCI, VCI, VHI).
  • Municipal crop-production statistics (2015–2019).

Main Results

• Drought conditions were most pronounced in 2015, 2017, 2021, and especially 2022, showing consistent agreement between precipitation deficits, hydrological responses, and vegetation stress.
• The years 2016, 2018–2020, 2023, and 2024 were generally more favorable.
• A persistent drought-prone zone was delineated, covering 40.02% of the Ukrina River Basin.
• This zone spans nine cities and municipalities, with over 93% located in Prnjavor, Derventa, Stanari, and Teslić.
• Drought hotspots are concentrated mainly in lowlands below 400 meters above sea level (a.s.l.), with a statistically significant concentration across lower elevation classes.
• Higher long-term exposure was identified in the central and northern valley sectors, with productive land showing high relative exposure.

Contributions

• Delineation of a persistent drought-prone zone by intersecting drought-affected areas across major episodes, providing a novel basin-scale identification of chronic drought hotspots for a river basin in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
• Development of an integrated remote sensing and GIS framework that strengthens drought monitoring by providing spatially explicit and repeatable evidence.
• Supports targeted adaptation planning and drought-risk management through improved spatial and temporal understanding of drought impacts.

Funding

Not explicitly provided in the text.

Citation

@article{Sabljić2026Remote,
  author = {Sabljić, Luka and Bajić, Davorin and Marković, Slobodan and Adžić, Dragutin and Spalevic, Velibor and Sestraș, Paul and Pavić, Dragoslav and Lukić, Tin},
  title = {Remote Sensing and GIS Assessment of Drought Dynamics in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17020124},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17020124}
}