Achite et al. (2026) Meteorological Drought Under Climate Variability in the Wadi Sly Basin, Algeria (1967–2022)

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-14
• Authors: Mohammed Achite, Tolga Baris Terzi, Kusum Pandey, Muhammad Jehanzaib, Tommaso Caloiero
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17020207

Research Groups

• Water and Environment Laboratory, Faculty of Nature and Life Sciences, Hassiba Benbouali University of Chlef, Chlef, Algeria
• Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, Turkey
• G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Garhwal Regional Centre, Srinagar, Uttarakhand, India
• Research Institute of Engineering and Technology, Hanyang University, Ansan, Republic of Korea
• Department of Civil Engineering & Technology, Qurtuba University of Science and Information Technology, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan
• National Research Council—Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (CNR-IRPI), Rende, Italy

Short Summary

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought in the Wadi Sly basin, Algeria (1967–2022) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), revealing significant inter-annual and decadal variability with synchronized severe drought episodes across the basin.

Objective

• To analyze the spatiotemporal variability, frequency, severity, and persistence of meteorological drought in the Wadi Sly basin, Algeria, from 1967 to 2022 using long-term precipitation records and multi-time scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Wadi Sly basin, northwestern Algeria, covering approximately 1225 square kilometers. The study utilized data from seven precipitation stations within the basin.
• Temporal Scale: 55 years, from 1967 to 2022, using monthly precipitation records.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales using a two-parameter Gamma distribution. Probability of Drought Severity (PDS) and Drought Frequency analyses were also conducted.
• Data sources: Long-term monthly precipitation records from seven meteorological stations provided by the National Agency of Water Resources (ANRH) of Algeria. Missing data were infilled using linear regression from neighboring stations.

Main Results

• The study identified pronounced inter-annual and decadal variability in meteorological drought conditions across the Wadi Sly basin.
• Severe and prolonged drought episodes were evident during the mid-1980s, early-to-mid-1990s, and late 2010s, with SPI values frequently falling below -2.0, indicating extreme drought.
• Spatial analysis revealed strong basin-wide synchronicity of drought events, suggesting the influence of large-scale atmospheric drivers, although localized variations in drought intensity were observed.
• Near-normal conditions dominated the record (approximately 60–70% of observations), but moderately dry conditions occurred more frequently than moderately wet conditions at several stations.
• Drought characteristics exhibited strong scale dependence: short-term droughts were frequent at shorter SPI time scales, while longer time scales emphasized drought persistence and accumulation.
• An increasing prominence of long-duration drought conditions was noted in recent decades, posing heightened risks to groundwater recharge processes and long-term water resource availability.

Contributions

• Provides a robust statistical framework for drought characterization and offers valuable insights for improved drought monitoring, early warning systems, and climate-resilient water resource management in semi-arid basins.
• Extends existing literature by offering a comprehensive basin-scale assessment based on over five decades of station-level observations, providing finer spatial resolution and temporal coverage compared to previous regional studies in Algeria.
• Introduces a major added value through the combined application of multi-time scale SPI analysis with Probability of Drought Severity (PDS) and drought frequency metrics, allowing for a more nuanced quantification of drought risk.
• Establishes a critical, long-term baseline of meteorological drought variability, forming a foundation for future research incorporating temperature-based indices (e.g., SPEI), hydrological drought indicators, and large-scale climate teleconnections.

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support was received during the preparation of this manuscript.

Citation

@article{Achite2026Meteorological,
  author = {Achite, Mohammed and Terzi, Tolga Baris and Pandey, Kusum and Jehanzaib, Muhammad and Caloiero, Tommaso},
  title = {Meteorological Drought Under Climate Variability in the Wadi Sly Basin, Algeria (1967–2022)},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17020207},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17020207}
}