Yang et al. (2026) Variation Characteristics of Evapotranspiration and Water Consumption Effectiveness Evaluation in the Aksu River Basin Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-27
• Authors: Meie Yang, Guanghui Wei, Shichen Yang, Xiaochen Yao
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17030244

Research Groups

• College of Intelligent Manufacturing and Electrical Engineering, Xinjiang College of Science and Technology, Korla, China
• Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Authority, Korla, China
• College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, China
• Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention, Urumqi, China

Short Summary

This study developed a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)-based framework to fuse multi-source actual evapotranspiration (ETa) estimates in the Aksu River Basin from 2000–2020, revealing an increasing ETa trend and a water consumption structure dominated by low-effectiveness components.

Objective

• To construct a multi-source actual evapotranspiration (ETa) fusion framework applicable to arid regions.
• To characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of ETa in the Aksu River Basin.
• To quantify regional differences in water consumption effectiveness and assess water use efficiency.
• To provide scientific guidance for the rational allocation and sustainable utilization of water resources in arid inland river basins.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Aksu River Basin, approximately 4.8 × 10^4 square kilometers.
• Temporal Scale: 2000–2020 (21 years), analyzed at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Penman–Monteith (P-M) equation for reference and actual evapotranspiration estimation.
  • MOD16A2 (Version 6) for remote sensing-based ETa.
  • Water balance approach using GRACE gravity satellite data for ETa inversion.
  • GLDAS-2.1–Noah land surface model for ETa simulation.
  • Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) for multi-model integration of ETa estimates.
  • Theil–Sen Median trend analysis for pixel-scale trend detection.
  • Mann–Kendall test for trend significance.
  • Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) for spatial interpolation of station data.
• Data sources:
  • MODIS remote sensing products (MOD16A2) from NASA Earthdata portal.
  • GRACE terrestrial water storage data (CSR GRACE mascon solution) from NASA.
  • GLDAS evapotranspiration data (GLDAS-2.1–Noah) from NASA.
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data (GDEMV2) from Geospatial Data Cloud (GDC), China.
  • Meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, E601 large-scale evaporation pan data) from China Meteorological Science Data Center.
  • Land use data from Resources and Environmental Science Data Center (RESDC), Chinese Academy of Sciences.
  • ERA5 reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Main Results

• The BMA integration framework effectively reduced model-dependent biases, improving the consistency and robustness of basin-scale ETa estimates.
• From 2000 to 2020, the Aksu River Basin experienced an overall increasing trend in ETa, with a multi-year average of 290.93 mm and a growth rate of 4.04 mm/a.
• Intra-annual ETa exhibited a distinct unimodal seasonal pattern, peaking in July–August, with approximately 79.54% of annual evapotranspiration concentrated from April to October.
• Spatially, ETa showed a clear "higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast" pattern, with a gradient decreasing from upstream to midstream and downstream.
• Areas with increasing ETa covered 43.22% of the basin (20.44% significantly increasing, mainly in Aheqi and Ush Counties), while areas with decreasing ETa covered 40.08% (21.41% significantly decreasing, mainly in Aksu City and Awati County).
• Land use-specific ETa magnitudes ranked as: grassland (245.86 mm/a) > cropland (236.94 mm/a) > forest land (221.30 mm/a) > unutilized land (143.05 mm/a).
• The multi-year average total water consumption in the Aksu River Basin was 9.332 billion cubic meters, with low-effectiveness water consumption dominating (61.24% or 5.715 billion cubic meters), followed by high-effectiveness (26.01% or 2.427 billion cubic meters) and medium-effectiveness (12.75% or 1.189 billion cubic meters).
• In irrigation districts, the multi-year average total water consumption was 7.419 billion cubic meters, with inefficient water use accounting for 58.38% (4.331 billion cubic meters).

Contributions

• Developed a robust multi-source ETa fusion framework for arid regions using Bayesian Model Averaging, which statistically accounts for model uncertainty and avoids subjective weighting.
• Provided a comprehensive and consistent characterization of the spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of actual evapotranspiration in the Aksu River Basin.
• Quantified the structural composition of water consumption effectiveness across different land use types and irrigation districts, highlighting the predominance of low-effectiveness water use.
• Offered a scientific basis for improved water resource management and ecological water security assessment in arid inland river basins.

Funding

• National Scientific Foundation of China (NSFC) (no. U2003204, no. 52579015)
• State’s Key Project of Research and Development Plan (2023YFC3206804)
• Scientific Research Project of the Tarim River Basin Management Bureau (TGJGLJJG-2024KYXM0003)

Citation

@article{Yang2026Variation,
  author = {Yang, Meie and Wei, Guanghui and Yang, Shichen and Yao, Xiaochen},
  title = {Variation Characteristics of Evapotranspiration and Water Consumption Effectiveness Evaluation in the Aksu River Basin Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17030244},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17030244}
}