Parisoto et al. (2026) Interannual and Intraseasonal Effects of Drought and Heatwaves on Expanding Soybean Production Regions in Brazil

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-01
• Authors: Greici Joana Parisoto, Francisco Munoz-Arriola, Felipe Gustavo Pilau
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17040367

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal impact of droughts and heatwaves on soybean yields in Brazil from 1989 to 2020, revealing an increasing frequency and severity of compound drought-heat events that are driving significant yield losses, particularly due to short-term dry events in vulnerable regions.

Objective

• To analyze spatiotemporal changes in soybean yields in response to droughts and heatwaves across highly productive municipalities in Brazil’s five macroregions from 1989 to 2020.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Highly productive municipalities across Brazil’s five macroregions, with observed spatial spillover effects across municipalities.
• Temporal Scale: 1989 to 2020 (30-year period), focusing on short-term dry events and seasonal timing.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
  • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
  • Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI)
  • Spatiotemporal linear regression analyses
• Data sources:
  • High-resolution meteorological data
  • Satellite-based evapotranspiration estimates
  • Municipal-level crop yield data

Main Results

• A clear rise in the frequency and severity of compound drought–heat events was observed, particularly in the Northeast and South frontiers, which also exhibited the highest yield sensitivity to hydroclimatic stress.
• Short-term dry events, rather than long-term climate trends, were identified as the main drivers of recent yield variability, with notable spatial spillover effects across municipalities.
• Specific municipalities like Cristalina and Bom Jesus showed significant negative trends (p < 0.05) in SPEI-6 (−0.04 and −0.03) and SPI-6 (0.04 and −0.03), indicating a consistent drying tendency.
• Over the 30-year period, municipalities accumulated total soybean yield losses of 3292.3 thousand tonnes (kt), corresponding to an average reduction of 3.7% relative to 5-year detrended yield.

Contributions

• Provides empirical evidence linking combined climate extremes (drought–heat events) to agricultural performance.
• Highlights the increasing vulnerability of rainfed agriculture in Brazil to hydroclimatic stress.
• Emphasizes the critical role of seasonal timing, crop phenology, and regional climate patterns for effective climate risk management.
• Presents a scalable framework for developing early warning systems and climate-resilient policies.

Funding

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Parisoto2026Interannual,
  author = {Parisoto, Greici Joana and Munoz-Arriola, Francisco and Pilau, Felipe Gustavo},
  title = {Interannual and Intraseasonal Effects of Drought and Heatwaves on Expanding Soybean Production Regions in Brazil},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17040367},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17040367}
}