Saadi et al. (2026) Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential in the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model Version 3

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-02
• Authors: Bushra Yousif Sagheer Al Saadi, Jing Zhang, Jie Shi
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17040369

Research Groups

Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model version 3 (AWI-CM3)'s performance in reproducing tropical cyclone genesis potential using two indices, finding it to be a high-fidelity model despite specific biases related to sea surface conditions and regional monsoon representation.

Objective

• To evaluate the performance of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model version 3 (AWI-CM3) in reproducing tropical cyclone genesis potential using the Emanuel–Nolan Genesis Potential Index (ENGPI) and Dynamic Genesis Potential Index (DGPI).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on tropical cyclone basins (e.g., Western North Pacific, Eastern North Pacific, North Indian Ocean, South Indian Ocean, South Pacific, North Atlantic).
• Temporal Scale: Historical simulations covering climatological annual mean, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model version 3 (AWI-CM3); Emanuel–Nolan Genesis Potential Index (ENGPI); Dynamic Genesis Potential Index (DGPI).
• Data sources: Observational data; Reanalysis data.

Main Results

• AWI-CM3 is a high-fidelity model capable of replicating the essential climatological annual mean, seasonal cycle, and ENSO-modulated interannual features of tropical cyclone genesis potential.
• The ENGPI in AWI-CM3 systematically overestimates the magnitude of tropical cyclone-favorable conditions, primarily due to basin-dependent sea surface temperature (SST) biases (warm biases over WNP, ENP, NIO, SIO, SP; cold bias over NA).
• The DGPI yields a more realistic magnitude but displays a more complex spatial bias structure.
• Both indices in AWI-CM3 accurately capture the seasonal cycle of tropical cyclone genesis potential across most basins, with the notable exception of the North Indian Ocean, reflecting model challenges in representing regional monsoon circulations and inherent GPI limitations.
• AWI-CM3 faithfully captures the interannual modulation of tropical cyclone genesis potential by ENSO, despite some regional discrepancies.
• The study highlights the necessity of cautious application of GPIs in future climate projections using climate models.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive evaluation of AWI-CM3's capability in simulating tropical cyclone genesis potential using two distinct genesis potential indices.
• Offers detailed insights into the model's biases related to sea surface conditions and regional atmospheric circulations.
• Identifies inherent limitations of genesis potential indices when applied within climate models, particularly for specific regions and future climate projections.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Saadi2026Evaluation,
  author = {Saadi, Bushra Yousif Sagheer Al and Zhang, Jing and Shi, Jie},
  title = {Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential in the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model Version 3},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17040369},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17040369}
}