Yang et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation in the Sichuan Basin

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-18
• Authors: Zongying Yang, Shizhong Jiang, Hong Xie, Yule Hou
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17040412

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) in the Sichuan Basin from 1963 to 2022, identifying an increasing trend in flood-to-drought (FD) events driven primarily by the subtropical high and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies.

Objective

• To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the core driving factors of drought-to-flood (DF) and flood-to-drought (FD) abrupt alternation compound disasters in the Sichuan Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Sichuan Basin, China (specifically highlighting areas such as Guang’an, Chongqing, Yibin, and Luzhou).
• Temporal Scale: 1963–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), standardized drought–flood abrupt alternation magnitude index, trend analysis, Morlet wavelet, and Random Forest.
• Data sources: Meteorological data and circulation factors.

Main Results

• Temporal Trends: FD events exhibit a more pronounced upward trend than DF events, with a significant increase in the proportion of moderate and severe events. Summer FD events increased in both frequency and intensity, while winter FD events showed a marked increase in intensity.
• Future Projections: DF intensity is expected to increase during spring and autumn, whereas FD intensity is expected to enhance during summer and winter.
• Spatial Distribution: DF events are most frequent in Guang’an and Chongqing; FD events are concentrated in the western edge of the basin, Yibin, and Luzhou. Moderate and severe events are more prominent in the basin's edge areas.
• Driving Factors: DFAA events are jointly driven by meteorological factors and large-scale sea surface temperature (SST)-circulation factors. FD events are mainly driven by the subtropical high, while tropical SST anomalies act as common precursor signals for both DF and FD events.

Contributions

• Provides a scientific basis and technical support for water resource management and the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for compound extreme meteorological disasters in the Sichuan Basin.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yang2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Yang, Zongying and Jiang, Shizhong and Xie, Hong and Hou, Yule},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation in the Sichuan Basin},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17040412},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17040412}
}