Silva et al. (2026) Intensification of Heat Extremes and Spatial Variability of Rainfall in Mainland Portugal (1980–2025): Insights from ETCCDI Indices Based on ERA5-Land Data

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-30
• Authors: Carla Larissa Fonseca da Silva, María Manuela Portela, Luis Ángel Espinosa, José Pedro Matos
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17080743

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study analyzes 18 ETCCDI climate indices in mainland Portugal from 1980 to 2025 using ERA5-Land data, revealing a robust, spatially coherent warming trend contrasted with highly variable and less significant precipitation trends.

Objective

• To analyze trends in temperature- and precipitation-related climate indices across mainland Portugal and validate the suitability of ERA5-Land reanalysis data for assessing national-scale climate extremes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland Portugal
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2025 (46 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5-Land reanalysis
• Data sources: ERA5-Land reanalysis data and ground-based observations (used for validation)

Main Results

• Temperature: Statistically significant warming across the entire study area, with the most intense increases occurring in southern and inland regions.
• Extreme Heat: A marked intensification of extreme heat events has been observed since the early 2000s.
• Precipitation: Indices exhibit high spatial variability and limited statistical significance, partly due to the difficulty of reproducing rainfall extremes in complex terrain.
• Climatic Asymmetry: A clear divergence exists between robust, spatially coherent warming and localized, uncertain precipitation trends.

Contributions

• Validates the use of ERA5-Land reanalysis for climate extreme assessment in Portugal.
• Identifies specific regional vulnerabilities—namely increasing heat stress in the south and exposure to short-duration heavy rainfall in the north—providing a basis for region-specific adaptation strategies.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Silva2026Intensification,
  author = {Silva, Carla Larissa Fonseca da and Portela, María Manuela and Espinosa, Luis Ángel and Matos, José Pedro},
  title = {Intensification of Heat Extremes and Spatial Variability of Rainfall in Mainland Portugal (1980–2025): Insights from ETCCDI Indices Based on ERA5-Land Data},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17080743},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17080743}
}