Liu et al. (2026) Weekly VPD and Monthly Precipitation as Contrasting Dominant Drivers of Soil Moisture in the Yangtze River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-13
• Authors: Yucheng Liu, Ran Huo, Bowen Zhu, Lele Deng
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17080781

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study investigates the scale-dependent meteorological drivers of soil moisture in the Yangtze River Basin, finding that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) dominates short-term variability while precipitation governs monthly trends.

Objective

• To quantify the relative contributions of precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and VPD to soil moisture variability across weekly, monthly, and annual temporal scales, including during extreme drought events.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yangtze River Basin (analyzed by upper, middle, and lower reaches).
• Temporal Scale: 2010 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Generalized Additive Model (GAM).
• Data sources: ESA CCI soil moisture products, ERA5 reanalysis data, and ground observations.

Main Results

• Validation: ESA CCI products showed a basin-wide RMSE of $0.0127\text{ m}^3/\text{m}^3$ against ERA5, with mean absolute deviations (MAD) of $0.0460$, $0.0434$, and $0.0072\text{ m}^3/\text{m}^3$ in the upper, middle, and lower reaches, respectively.
• Weekly Scale: VPD is the dominant control, contributing an average of 47.04% basin-wide (reaching 55.92% in the lower reaches).
• Monthly Scale: Precipitation is the primary driver, with a basin-wide average contribution of 36.62% (reaching 44.65% in the upper reaches).
• Extreme Droughts: The dominance of precipitation weakens; precipitation, VPD, temperature, and wind speed each contribute approximately 20–30% to soil moisture variability.

Contributions

• Identifies a critical scale-dependent shift in soil moisture controls, highlighting that precipitation-based monitoring alone may underestimate rapid soil drying risks.
• Suggests that integrating atmospheric demand indicators (specifically VPD) can enhance drought early warning systems and water resource management in warming climates.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Liu2026Weekly,
  author = {Liu, Yucheng and Huo, Ran and Zhu, Bowen and Deng, Lele},
  title = {Weekly VPD and Monthly Precipitation as Contrasting Dominant Drivers of Soil Moisture in the Yangtze River Basin},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17080781},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17080781}
}