Turp et al. (2026) Half a Degree Matters: Mean Climate and Climate Extremes Responses to 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Levels in Türkiye

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-07
• Authors: M. Tufan Turp, Nazan An, Elmas Merve Samancı, Zekican Demiralay, Dalya Nur Çatalçekiç, M. Levent Kurnaz
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17090873

Research Groups

• Department of Meteorology, Middle East Technical University (METU)
• Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M)
• National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the implications of an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C over Türkiye using high-resolution climate simulations, highlighting strong temperature-related responses and heterogeneous precipitation changes.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of an additional 0.5 °C warming on climate indicators in Türkiye

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale (Türkiye)
• Temporal Scale: Annual and seasonal scales

Methodology and Data

• Models used: RegCM4.4, MPI-ESM-MR, HadGEM2-ES
• Data sources: High-resolution climate simulations driven by global models

Main Results

• Strong temperature-related responses in indicators such as TN and DI with clear increases
• Heterogeneous precipitation changes among indices and seasons, with RCM-HG projecting increases and RCM-MPI suggesting decreases in certain regions and seasons
• Greater robustness of annual temperature-related changes (SNR analysis)

Contributions

• Provides a scientific basis for regionally tailored adaptation planning in Türkiye
• Highlights the potential for reducing climate risks by limiting warming to lower levels

Funding

• This research was supported by the Turkish Ministry of Education, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK), and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program.

Citation

@article{Turp2026Half,
  author = {Turp, M. Tufan and An, Nazan and Samancı, Elmas Merve and Demiralay, Zekican and Çatalçekiç, Dalya Nur and Kurnaz, M. Levent},
  title = {Half a Degree Matters: Mean Climate and Climate Extremes Responses to 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Levels in Türkiye},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17090873},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090873}
}