武永利 et al. (2026) Evaluation of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and CMIP6 for Extreme High Temperature Frequency and Intensity in the Sichuan–Chongqing Region with Future Projections

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-09
• Authors: 武永利, Bingbing Jiang, Zhang Chen, Zhibiao Wang
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17090886

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-CAS)
• Sichuan University (SCU)

Short Summary

This study evaluates and projects changes in extreme high-temperature events over the Sichuan-Chongqing region using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and CMIP6 datasets. The results indicate that NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 outperforms CMIP6 in simulating Tmax, EHTF, and EHTI.

Objective

• Investigate the performance of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and CMIP6 in simulating extreme high-temperature events over the Sichuan-Chongqing region.
• Project changes in EHT indices under different emission scenarios for the mid-and late-21st century using the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale (Sichuan-Chongqing region)
• Temporal Scale: 1981-2014 (evaluation period) and 2020-2100 (projection period)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, CMIP6
• Data sources: CN05.1 observational data, Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method

Main Results

• NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 exhibits higher spatial correlation (>0.90) and lower RMSE than CMIP6 in depicting the spatial distribution of Tmax.
• The dataset captures the spatial patterns of EHTF and EHTI, although it exhibits a systematic underestimation of their magnitudes due to the inherent smoothing effect of the BCSD method.

Contributions

• This study provides an evaluation of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and CMIP6 in simulating extreme high-temperature events over the Sichuan-Chongqing region.
• The results highlight the applicability of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 in projecting changes in EHT indices under different emission scenarios.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41875092) and the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. QYZDJ-SSW-DQC012).

Citation

@article{武永利2026Evaluation,
  author = {武永利 and Jiang, Bingbing and Chen, Zhang and Wang, Zhibiao},
  title = {Evaluation of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and CMIP6 for Extreme High Temperature Frequency and Intensity in the Sichuan–Chongqing Region with Future Projections},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17090886},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090886}
}