Zhang et al. (2026) Hydroclimatic Divergence and Climate-Driven Runoff Uncertainty in the Semi-Arid Fen River Basin

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-29
• Authors: Ke Zhang, Xin Chen, Junkai Du, Yaobing Sui, Chen Liu, Zexian Bai
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17100954

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of climate change on runoff in a semi-arid basin using historical and projected data, finding that simulated annual runoff declined under future temperature scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate how climate change affects runoff in semi-arid basins with little annual precipitation change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Fen River Basin in China
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1956–2025), Future (2026–2050)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 projections, WEP-L simulations
• Data sources: Historical meteorological observations, bias-adjusted CMIP6 projections

Main Results

• Simulated annual runoff declined at five reporting locations under future temperature scenarios.
• Future temperatures averaged 10.57 and 11.00 °C under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.
• Ensemble-mean runoff was numerically 3.4–6.8% lower under SSP5-8.5.

Contributions

• Provides a climate response baseline with substantial model uncertainty for semi-arid basins.
• Highlights the importance of considering model uncertainty in projections of regulated river flow.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51879207)
• University of California, Irvine Research Grants Program

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Hydroclimatic,
  author = {Zhang, Ke and Chen, Xin and Du, Junkai and Sui, Yaobing and Liu, Chen and Bai, Zexian},
  title = {Hydroclimatic Divergence and Climate-Driven Runoff Uncertainty in the Semi-Arid Fen River Basin},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17100954},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17100954}
}