Reçber et al. (2026) Multi-Index Assessment of Meteorological Drought Variability and Trends in Tuzluca District (Iğdır, Türkiye)

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-29
• Authors: Züleyha Bingül Reçber, Mikail Safa, Zehra Işık, Yasin Paşa, Mehmet Ali Çelik
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17111061

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluated meteorological drought conditions in Tuzluca District, Türkiye, from 1960–2024 using four drought indices across multiple time scales. It found significant temporal variability and differing trends among indices, underscoring the necessity of a multi-index approach for comprehensive drought characterization and management.

Objective

• To evaluate meteorological drought conditions in Tuzluca District (Iğdır, Türkiye) over the period 1960–2024 using four complementary drought indices (SPI, SPEI, PNI, RNI) calculated at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tuzluca District (Iğdır, Türkiye)
• Temporal Scale: 1960–2024 (65 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
  • Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
  • Percent of Normal Index (PNI)
  • Rainfall Normalized Index (RNI)
  • Modified Mann–Kendall test (for trend analysis)
  • Sen’s slope estimator (for trend magnitude)
• Data sources:
  • Daily precipitation data from the 16th Regional Directorate of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)
  • Daily temperature data from the 16th Regional Directorate of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)
  • Daily evaporation data from the 16th Regional Directorate of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)

Main Results

• Substantial temporal variability in drought and wetness conditions was observed across short-, medium-, and long-term accumulation periods.
• Short-term indices (1- and 3-month) effectively captured rapid monthly and seasonal fluctuations.
• Longer accumulation periods (6- and 12-month) highlighted the persistence of extended dry and wet episodes, with pronounced negative anomalies around 1999–2003 and renewed dry conditions during parts of the early 2020s.
• Trend analysis identified statistically significant increasing trends in the annual mean SPI-12 (Z = 2.0191, p < 0.05), PNI-12 (Z = 1.9997, p < 0.05), and RNI-12 (Z = 2.0299, p < 0.05).
• Sen’s slope estimates for these trends were 0.0147 index units per year for SPI-12, 0.3527 index units per year for PNI-12, and 0.0142 index units per year for RNI-12.
• SPEI-12 exhibited a decreasing but statistically non-significant tendency (Z = −1.1451, p = 0.2522), with a Sen’s slope of −0.0063 index units per year.
• The direction and statistical significance of detected trends differed among the indices.

Contributions

• Highlights the critical importance of combining precipitation-based and water-balance-based drought indices across multiple accumulation periods for a comprehensive characterization of temporal drought variability.
• Provides valuable insights to support regional water-resources management, agricultural planning, and meteorological drought early-warning systems in semi-arid regions.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Reçber2026MultiIndex,
  author = {Reçber, Züleyha Bingül and Safa, Mikail and Işık, Zehra and Paşa, Yasin and Çelik, Mehmet Ali},
  title = {Multi-Index Assessment of Meteorological Drought Variability and Trends in Tuzluca District (Iğdır, Türkiye)},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17111061},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17111061}
}