Zheng et al. (2026) Extreme Precipitation in China (1960–2020): Spatiotemporal Evolution and Atmosphere–Ocean Circulation Drivers

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-05-23
• Authors: Runhe Zheng, Fenli Zheng, Shouzhang Peng, X X Xu, Jinxia Fu
• DOI: 10.3390/cli14060112

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes eight extreme precipitation indices across six climatic sub-regions of China from 1960 to 2020, finding general upward trends and identifying key atmosphere-ocean teleconnection combinations that drive regional variability.

Objective

• To assess the long-term evolution of extreme precipitation at the national level in China and quantify the role of atmosphere-ocean teleconnections in driving regional differences.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale (China), divided into six climatic sub-regions (Northeast, North, East, Central South, Northwest, and Southwest) using data from 695 meteorological stations.
• Temporal Scale: 1960–2020 (61 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ETCCDI-based extreme precipitation indices (PRCPTOT, CWD, R20, R95p, R99p, RX1day, RX5day, and SDII), Wavelet power spectra, and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC).
• Data sources: Daily records from 695 quality-controlled meteorological stations.

Main Results

• Trend Analysis: Seven of the eight indices (excluding CWD) showed upward tendencies, with mutation points primarily clustered between 2011 and 2016. Five indices (CWD, R95p, R99p, RX1day, and RX5day) exhibited statistically significant fluctuating changes ($p < 0.05$).
• Periodicity: CWD demonstrated a statistically significant periodicity of approximately 8–10 years.
• Spatial Patterns: Precipitation index magnitudes increased along a northwest-to-southeast gradient. Significant upward shifts were concentrated in East and Central South China, while downward shifts occurred in North and northern East China.
• Altitude Influence: CWD increased with elevation; other indices declined below 1288 m, fluctuated between 1288 m and 2090 m, and declined again above 2090 m.
• Circulation Drivers: Significant resonance was found with SCSMMI, WPSHI, PNA, and NAO. The most influential synergistic driver combinations were ENSO-PNA, SCSMMI-WPSHI, and ENSO-NAO-EASMI.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive empirical baseline for the long-term evolution of extreme precipitation in China and elucidates the complex synergistic interactions between multiple atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices that govern regional precipitation extremes.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zheng2026Extreme,
  author = {Zheng, Runhe and Zheng, Fenli and Peng, Shouzhang and Xu, X X and Fu, Jinxia},
  title = {Extreme Precipitation in China (1960–2020): Spatiotemporal Evolution and Atmosphere–Ocean Circulation Drivers},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/cli14060112},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14060112}
}