Ogou et al. (2026) Observed and Simulated Decadal Variability of Precipitation in North Africa and the Mediterranean: Insights from ERA5 Reanalysis and CORDEX-CORE Simulations

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-24
• Authors: Faustin Katchele Ogou, Khadija Arjdal, Fatima Driouech
• DOI: 10.3390/cli14090172

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the performance of CORDEX-CORE regional climate models in characterizing decadal precipitation variability across the Mediterranean and North Africa (MNA) using ERA5 reanalysis data. The results indicate a general tendency for models to overestimate precipitation, with the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) providing the most reliable reproduction of precipitation patterns.

Objective

• To characterize and evaluate the decadal precipitation variability in the Mediterranean and North Africa (MNA) and its specific sub-regions: Western North Africa (WNA), Sahara (SAH), southern Mediterranean (SMED), and northern Mediterranean (NMED).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Mediterranean and North Africa).
• Temporal Scale: Decadal.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CORDEX-CORE regional climate models (RCMs) including CCLM5-0-15, RegCM4_v7, and REMO2015-NorESM1-M; General Circulation Models (GCMs) including HadGEM2-ES and NorESM1-M; and a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME).
• Data sources: ERA5 fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis precipitation data.

Main Results

• Bias Trends: Most models overestimated precipitation (wet bias), particularly during the annual, summer, and autumn seasons. Positive biases were more pronounced in RCMs than in GCMs.
• Negative Biases: Underestimations were primarily linked to GCMs (HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M) and specific RCMs (CCLM5-0-15, RegCM4_v7), occurring mainly during winter and spring.
• Model Performance: The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) demonstrated the highest accuracy in reproducing decadal precipitation patterns for the MNA, SMED, and NMED regions.
• Sub-regional Accuracy: For the WNA and SAH regions at an annual time scale, REMO2015-NorESM1-M and the MME outperformed other models.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed assessment of the reliability of regional climate models in a global climate change hotspot, offering essential data to improve water resource management and climate adaptation strategies, particularly in North Africa.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ogou2026Observed,
  author = {Ogou, Faustin Katchele and Arjdal, Khadija and Driouech, Fatima},
  title = {Observed and Simulated Decadal Variability of Precipitation in North Africa and the Mediterranean: Insights from ERA5 Reanalysis and CORDEX-CORE Simulations},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/cli14090172},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14090172}
}