Serykh et al. (2026) Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation over the Brazilian and Nearby Regions from 1940 to 2099 Based on Weather Stations, Reanalyses, and the CMIP6 Model Ensemble

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-11
• Authors: Ilya V. Serykh, Крашенинникова Светлана Борисовна, Mariia Safonova, Tatiana Yu. Gorbunova, Roman P. Gorbunov, Fábio Krykhtine, Osvaldo Moura Rezende
• DOI: 10.3390/cli14090192

Research Groups

• Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
• Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)

Short Summary

This study investigates changes in precipitation over the Brazilian region, finding a decline in average precipitation from 1996 to 2025 and projected continued decline under high radiative forcing scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the trend of precipitation changes over the extended Brazilian region using multiple data sources and models.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Extended Brazilian region (10° N–40° S; 75° W–25° W)
• Temporal Scale: 1940–2025 (analysis) and 2026–2099 (projection)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 ensemble of 32 models
• Data sources: Meteorological stations, ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis, NOAA PREC reconstruction

Main Results

• A decline in mean precipitation is observed from 1996 to 2025 (ΔPWeather station = −44 mm/year, ΔPERA5 = −174 mm/year)
• CMIP6 ensemble projections indicate a continued decline in average precipitation under high radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5)
• Spatially heterogeneous changes in precipitation are observed, with increases in the north and south of the Brazilian region and decreases in its central portion

Contributions

• This study provides an original analysis of precipitation trends over the Brazilian region using multiple data sources and models, contributing to the understanding of regional climate variability.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Serykh2026Changes,
  author = {Serykh, Ilya V. and Борисовна, Крашенинникова Светлана and Safonova, Mariia and Gorbunova, Tatiana Yu. and Gorbunov, Roman P. and Krykhtine, Fábio and Rezende, Osvaldo Moura},
  title = {Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation over the Brazilian and Nearby Regions from 1940 to 2099 Based on Weather Stations, Reanalyses, and the CMIP6 Model Ensemble},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/cli14090192},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14090192}
}