Papadopoulos-Dorlis et al. (2026) Modeling and Mapping Climate Risk for Olive Cultivation in Greece Using an AI-Assisted Geospatial Analysis System

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-20
• Authors: Konstantinos Papadopoulos-Dorlis, Fotoula E. Droulia, Peter Anargyrou Roussos, Emmanouil Psomiadis, Ioannis Charalampopoulos
• DOI: 10.3390/cli14090199

Research Groups

• National Observatory of Athens (NOA)
• Institute of Applied Biosciences (INAB), Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CERTH)

Short Summary

This study quantified climate risk for olive cultivation across Greece using a weighted multi-criteria decision analysis, producing a composite spatial distribution of climate risk and district-level summaries linked to CORINE Land Cover 2018.

Objective

• Investigate the combined historical exposure of Greek olive groves to thermal, water, biotic, and extreme-weather pressures at a national scale.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National (Greece)
• Temporal Scale: Hourly ERA5-Land data from 1995–2024 and quality-controlled ESWD reports from 2014–2024

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Weighted multi-criteria decision analysis with lethal frost as a separate constraint
• Data sources: ERA5-Land, ESWD reports, CORINE Land Cover 2018

Main Results

• Composite climate risk was spatially heterogeneous, with cold and frost recurrence predominant in northern and upland areas, while water-related indicators occurred most persistently in southern and island districts.
• Most of the mapped olive grove area fell into intermediate composite classes rather than at the extremes of the score range.

Contributions

• Provided a national historical baseline for climate-risk recurrence in Greek olive groves.
• Offered a spatial basis for regionally targeted adaptation planning.
• Demonstrated the applicability of an AI-assisted geospatial framework for reproducible national-scale climate-risk assessment of perennial crops.

Funding

• This research was supported by the H2020 project "Climate-Smart Agriculture" (Grant Agreement No. 821471) and the Greek Ministry of Rural Development and Food (Project Code: 2019-001).

Citation

@article{PapadopoulosDorlis2026Modeling,
  author = {Papadopoulos-Dorlis, Konstantinos and Droulia, Fotoula E. and Roussos, Peter Anargyrou and Psomiadis, Emmanouil and Charalampopoulos, Ioannis},
  title = {Modeling and Mapping Climate Risk for Olive Cultivation in Greece Using an AI-Assisted Geospatial Analysis System},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/cli14090199},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14090199}
}