Aleksova et al. (2026) Initial Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Aridity Dynamics in North Macedonia (1991–2020)

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Identification

• Journal: Earth
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-04
• Authors: Bojana Aleksova, Nikola Milentijević, Uroš Durlević, Stevan Savić, Ivica Milevski
• DOI: 10.3390/earth7010020

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text. The study utilized observational records from 13 meteorological stations across North Macedonia.

Short Summary

This study investigated the spatial organization and temporal variability of aridity and thermal continentality in North Macedonia using observational data from 1991–2020. It found a significant increase in mean annual air temperature and strong altitudinal control on aridity patterns, but no statistically significant long-term trends in aridity or continentality, while establishing a first climatological baseline for the region.

Objective

• To examine the spatial organization and temporal variability of aridity and thermal continentality in North Macedonia using homogenized observational records.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North Macedonia, utilizing data from 13 meteorological stations distributed across contrasting altitudinal and physiographic settings.
• Temporal Scale: 1991–2020 (30 years), based on homogenized monthly and annual air temperature and precipitation series.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Aridity/Continentality Indices: Johansson Continentality Index (JCI), De Martonne Aridity Index (IDM), Pinna Combinative Index (IP).
  • Statistical Tests: Pettitt’s nonparametric change-point test, linear regression, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, Pearson correlation (r).
• Data sources: Homogenized monthly and annual observational records of air temperature and precipitation from 13 meteorological stations in North Macedonia. Large-scale atmospheric circulation data (North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO, Southern Oscillation Index - SOI) were used for correlation analysis.

Main Results

• A spatially consistent and statistically significant increase in mean annual air temperature was observed, with a common change point around 2006.
• Precipitation displayed strong spatial variability and limited temporal coherence across the study area.
• Aridity patterns showed strong altitudinal control, with extremely humid to very humid conditions in mountainous western regions and semi-humid to semi-dry conditions dominating lowland and southeastern areas, particularly during summer.
• Trend analyses did not reveal statistically significant long-term changes in aridity or continentality over the 30-year study period, although low-elevation stations exhibited weak drying tendencies.
• A moderate positive association (r = 0.66) was found between the De Martonne Aridity Index (IDM) and the Pinna Combinative Index (IP), confirming internal consistency among aridity indices.
• Summer aridity showed a statistically significant relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Contributions

• Provides a robust climatic reference for North Macedonia.
• Establishes the first climatological baseline of aridity conditions for North Macedonia based on multiple indices applied to homogenized observational data.
• Contributes to regional assessments of hydroclimatic variability, which is relevant for climate adaptation planning.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Aleksova2026Initial,
  author = {Aleksova, Bojana and Milentijević, Nikola and Durlević, Uroš and Savić, Stevan and Milevski, Ivica},
  title = {Initial Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Aridity Dynamics in North Macedonia (1991–2020)},
  journal = {Earth},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/earth7010020},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7010020}
}