Nascimento et al. (2026) Multi-Year Hydro–PV Complementarity at the Belo Monte–Pimental Hydropower Complex

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Energies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-15
• Authors: Ayrton Lucas Lisboa do Nascimento, Jonathan Muñoz Tabora, Carminda Célia Moura de Moura Carvalho, Vitor Almeida Bernardes, Bruno Santana de Albuquerque, Maria Emília de Lima Tostes
• DOI: 10.3390/en19184368

Research Groups

Not explicitly provided in the paper text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the multi-year, multi-scale hydro–photovoltaic (PV) complementarity of the Belo Monte–Pimental hydropower complex in the Brazilian Amazon, revealing strong inverse associations at intraday and seasonal scales that lead to capacity-dependent portfolio effects, rather than direct hour-by-hour balancing.

Objective

• To evaluate the multi-year, multi-scale hydro–photovoltaic (PV) complementarity of the Belo Monte–Pimental run-of-river hydropower complex in the Brazilian Amazon and its implications for renewable-resource diversification and electricity planning.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Belo Monte–Pimental run-of-river hydropower complex, Brazilian Amazon.
• Temporal Scale: Multi-year (2021–2025), multi-scale (hourly, intraday, seasonal profiles), comprising 43,824 synchronized hourly observations.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Physically modeled PV generation.
• Data sources: Official hourly hydropower-generation records from the Brazilian National System Operator; Physically modeled PV generation.

Main Results

• The raw hourly hydro–PV association was weak (Pearson r=−0.119; Spearman ρ=−0.100).
• Substantially stronger inverse associations were observed for the mean intraday (r=−0.541; ρ=−0.560) and seasonal profiles (r=−0.580; ρ=−0.650).
• Seasonal correlations remained negative in all five analyzed years, while intraday association varied substantially among years.
• Capacity-equivalent scenarios from 1.1 MWp to 1000 MWp showed progressively greater portfolio effects.
• At 1000 MWp, PV generation corresponded to 18.68% of the five-year mean dry-season hydropower energy.
• At 1000 MWp, PV reduced the hourly portfolio coefficient of variation by 4.71%.
• At 1000 MWp, PV increased the daytime fifth-percentile generation by 191.2 MW.
• 2024 was identified as the low-generation year, with its June–November hydropower generation 1679.3 GWh below the five-year dry-season mean.
• This deficit corresponds to a seasonal energy-equivalent capacity of approximately 2327 MWp under the adopted PV model.
• The 1000 MWp PV scenario would provide energy equivalent to about 43% of the observed deficit in 2024.
• The results characterize persistent seasonal diversification and capacity-dependent portfolio effects, rather than hour-by-hour balancing, firm capacity, or coordinated hydro–PV dispatch.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed, multi-year, multi-scale evaluation of hydro–PV complementarity for a major Amazonian hydropower complex, using official generation records and physically modeled PV.
• Quantifies the capacity-dependent portfolio effects of PV integration, demonstrating significant benefits for system stability and energy supply at intraday and seasonal scales despite weak hourly correlations.
• Highlights the potential for seasonal diversification and mitigation of dry-season hydropower deficits through PV, offering valuable insights for renewable-resource diversification and electricity planning in the region.

Funding

Not explicitly provided in the paper text.

Citation

@article{Nascimento2026MultiYear,
  author = {Nascimento, Ayrton Lucas Lisboa do and Tabora, Jonathan Muñoz and Carvalho, Carminda Célia Moura de Moura and Bernardes, Vitor Almeida and Albuquerque, Bruno Santana de and Tostes, Maria Emília de Lima},
  title = {Multi-Year Hydro–PV Complementarity at the Belo Monte–Pimental Hydropower Complex},
  journal = {Energies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/en19184368},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/en19184368}
}