López-Teloxa et al. (2026) Ecosystems in Mexico Are Experiencing an Increase in Trend and Intensity in Aridity

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Identification

• Journal: Environments
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-28
• Authors: Leticia Citlaly López-Teloxa, Patricia Ruiz-García, Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas
• DOI: 10.3390/environments13040187

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the paper.

Short Summary

This study investigates aridity dynamics in Mexico (1999-2024) in relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, identifying ecosystems exposed to emerging aridification, and finding that significant areas, particularly in central and southern Mexico, experience increased aridity under both El Niño and La Niña conditions, suggesting persistent aridification.

Objective

• To examine the dynamics of aridity in Mexico in relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions) between 1999 and 2024, and to identify ecosystems exposed to emerging aridification.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mexico, at a resolution of 1 km across nearly two million grid cells.
• Temporal Scale: 1999 to 2024 (26 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Lang index for aridity estimation.
• Data sources: Implied climatic data for Lang index calculation (e.g., precipitation, temperature).

Main Results

• Over 60% of Mexico is classified as arid or semi-arid.
• During El Niño, up to 100% of the central and southern regions exhibit increased aridity, affecting an area of 290,852 km² (14.7% of Mexico), where both the intensity and the trend are high.
• During La Niña, 150,022 km² (7.6% of Mexico) still exhibit increasing aridity despite generally wetter conditions.
• Areas exposed to aridity under both ENSO phases cover 16,224 km² (0.8% of Mexico), particularly affecting cloud forests, secondary vegetation, and agricultural landscapes, suggesting persistent aridification.
• The average arid area was 64% ± 7.51% during El Niño, 67% ± 1.44% during La Niña, and 64% ± 8.14% during neutral years, indicating substantial variability beyond phase dependence.
• These findings reveal a complex, non-linear ENSO influence and suggest chronic hydroclimatic stress in some regions.

Contributions

• Identifies specific ecosystems and regions in Mexico experiencing persistent aridification under both El Niño and La Niña phases.
• Quantifies the spatial extent of increased aridity under different ENSO phases, highlighting areas of double exposure to aridification.
• Reveals a complex, non-linear influence of ENSO on aridity dynamics in Mexico, challenging simpler assumptions about ENSO impacts.
• Provides crucial information for effective water management, biodiversity conservation, and climate adaptation planning in Mexico.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the paper.

Citation

@article{LópezTeloxa2026Ecosystems,
  author = {López-Teloxa, Leticia Citlaly and Ruiz-García, Patricia and Monterroso-Rivas, Alejandro Ismael},
  title = {Ecosystems in Mexico Are Experiencing an Increase in Trend and Intensity in Aridity},
  journal = {Environments},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/environments13040187},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13040187}
}