Dautaliyeva et al. (2026) Spatial Coherence and Non-Stationary Drought Dynamics in Water Management Basins of Northern and Central Kazakhstan

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Identification

• Journal: Environments
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-22
• Authors: Makpal Dautaliyeva, Lyazzat K. Makhmudova, Elmira K. Talipova, Lyazzat Birimbayeva, G. М. Kambarbekov, Harris Vangelis, Aidana Daiyrbayeva, Madina Zhulkainarova, Adilet Kanatuly, María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero, Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri
• DOI: 10.3390/environments13100520

Research Groups

Not available in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigated the spatiotemporal variability, spatial consistency, and non-stationarity of meteorological and hydrological droughts in three major water management basins in Kazakhstan. It found that droughts are spatially coherent but heterogeneous regional events with pronounced temporal non-stationarity, highlighting the value of a multi-index approach for monitoring and management.

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal variability, spatial consistency, and non-stationarity of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Nura–Sarysu, Esil, and Tobyl–Torgai water management basins of northern and central Kazakhstan.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Three major water management basins (Nura–Sarysu, Esil, and Tobyl–Torgai) in northern and central Kazakhstan.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term instrumental observations (specific duration not provided).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). Structural change detection tests: Pettitt test, Buishand test, CUSUM test.
• Data sources: Long-term instrumental observations from meteorological stations and hydrological gauges.

Main Results

• Major drought episodes were identified as spatially coherent regional events, though their spatial extent varied significantly among basins.
• The Esil WMB exhibited the highest synchronization of meteorological droughts, while the Tobyl–Torgai WMB showed greater spatial heterogeneity.
• Statistically significant structural changes were detected in both meteorological and hydrological drought series, indicating pronounced temporal non-stationarity, with timing and frequency differing among indices and basins.
• A higher proportion of structural changes was found for SPI-3 compared to SPEI-3, interpreted as reflecting differences in index statistical behavior.
• SDI-12 demonstrated more persistent and temporally smoothed hydrological drought dynamics compared to short-term meteorological indices, with hydrological change timings varying across river systems.
• Drought development in Northern and Central Kazakhstan is characterized by spatial heterogeneity and temporal non-stationarity.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal variability, spatial consistency, and non-stationarity of meteorological and hydrological droughts in key water management basins of Northern and Central Kazakhstan.
• Demonstrates that the joint interpretation of SPI, SPEI, and SDI offers a more comprehensive basis for basin-scale drought monitoring and adaptive water-resource management in the region.

Funding

Not available in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dautaliyeva2026Spatial,
  author = {Dautaliyeva, Makpal and Makhmudova, Lyazzat K. and Talipova, Elmira K. and Birimbayeva, Lyazzat and Kambarbekov, G. М. and Vangelis, Harris and Daiyrbayeva, Aidana and Zhulkainarova, Madina and Kanatuly, Adilet and Rodrigo-Clavero, María-Elena and Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier},
  title = {Spatial Coherence and Non-Stationary Drought Dynamics in Water Management Basins of Northern and Central Kazakhstan},
  journal = {Environments},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/environments13100520},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13100520}
}