LU et al. (2026) China’s Seasonal Precipitation: Quantitative Attribution of Ocean-Atmosphere Teleconnections and Near-Surface Forcing

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-04
• Authors: Chang LU, Long Ma, Bolin Sun, Xing Huang, TingXi Liu
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13010019

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes nearly 70 years of monthly precipitation records across mainland China to understand its spatiotemporal variability and quantify the contributions of eight climate drivers. It reveals distinct regional and seasonal controls on precipitation, with North Atlantic sea surface temperature and polar circulation dominating in the cold season (contributing ~32% in northern regions) and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and convection anomalies influencing the warm season (contributing ~22% in southern regions).

Objective

• To systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in mainland China and quantify the contributions of multiple climate drivers.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland China.
• Temporal Scale: Nearly 70 years of monthly records.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Precipitation outputs from eight CMIP6 models.
• Data sources: Monthly station precipitation records; eight climate drivers: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), surface air pressure (AP), wind speed (WS), relative humidity (RH), and surface solar radiation (SR). Wavelet analysis and partial redundancy analysis were used for evaluation.

Main Results

• Seasonal precipitation decreases stepwise from the southeast toward the northwest.
• Precipitation stability is markedly lower in the northern arid and semi-arid regions compared to the humid south, with widespread declines near the boundary between China's second and third topographic steps.
• During the cold season, in northern arid/semi-arid zones and along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau, precipitation variability is mainly linked to interdecadal swings of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the strength of polar and midlatitude circulation, amplified by near-surface winds; the combined contribution reaches approximately 32% across the Northeast Plain, Junggar Basin, and areas north of the Loess Plateau.
• During the warm season, in the eastern and southern monsoon regions, precipitation is primarily modulated by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and convection anomalies, and related changes in subtropical high position/strength, moisture transport pathways, and relative humidity; the combined contribution is about 22% south of the Yangtze River and in adjacent areas.

Contributions

• Reveals the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in China.
• Quantifies the responses of precipitation to multiple climate drivers and their relative contributions.
• Provides a quantitative basis for water allocation and disaster risk management under climate change.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{LU2026Chinas,
  author = {LU, Chang and Ma, Long and Sun, Bolin and Huang, Xing and Liu, TingXi},
  title = {China’s Seasonal Precipitation: Quantitative Attribution of Ocean-Atmosphere Teleconnections and Near-Surface Forcing},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13010019},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13010019}
}