Moldakhmetov et al. (2026) Reaction of Minimum Streamflow of Arid Kazakhstan Rivers to Climate Non-Stationarity

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-05
• Authors: Marat Moldakhmetov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Ainur Mussina, Assel Abdullayeva, Lyazzat Birimbayeva, Marzhan Tursyngali, Bakyt Imamova, Makpal Dautalieva, Sagi Buralkhiyev, Harris Vangelis
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13020062

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed long-term changes (1940–2022) in minimum river flow in Western Kazakhstan, revealing distinct seasonal climate controls and significant structural shifts, with summer flows decreasing due to precipitation changes and winter flows increasing due to warming and increased underground recharge.

Objective

• To comprehensively analyze long-term changes in minimum river flow (summer and winter) in southern Western Kazakhstan (Temir, Oiyil, Zhem rivers) from 1940–2022.
• To identify climate control mechanisms, assess structural homogeneity, and reveal hidden fluctuations and stable phases of the hydrological regime using advanced time series analysis methods.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern rivers of Western Kazakhstan (Temir, Oiyil, Zhem).
• Temporal Scale: 1940–2022 (83 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)
  • Integral Innovative Trend Analysis (IPTA)
  • Climate Sensitivity Index of minimum flow (CSImin)
  • Parametric and nonparametric tests: Pettitt test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT).
• Data sources: Long-term hydrological time series data (minimum river flow).

Main Results

• Minimum river flow exhibits pronounced seasonal asymmetry in climate sensitivity: summer runoff is primarily controlled by atmospheric precipitation, while winter minimum runoff is determined by temperature regime and soil freezing depth.
• Significant structural shifts in minimum flow occurred between the 1960s and 1990s, coinciding with large-scale regional climatic anomalies.
• Summer minimum flows showed phases of prolonged low water levels and negative trends in the mid-20th century, characterized by high internal heterogeneity.
• Winter minimum flows demonstrated a steady increase, attributed to regional warming and an increased share of underground recharge, with a more stable structure.
• The study confirms the high climatic sensitivity of minimum runoff, highlighting the need for dynamically adaptable water resource assessment methods.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive long-term analysis (1940–2022) of minimum river flow in Western Kazakhstan, distinguishing seasonal climate controls and their impacts.
• Introduces a combined methodological approach using ITA, IPTA, CSImin, and various statistical tests to reveal hidden fluctuations and structural shifts in hydrological regimes.
• Highlights the high climatic sensitivity of minimum runoff, advocating for a shift from static standards to dynamically adaptable water resource assessment methods.
• Offers a practical approach for developing adaptation strategies, assessing basin risk profiles, and improving the sustainability of water management planning in arid regions.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Moldakhmetov2026Reaction,
  author = {Moldakhmetov, Marat and Makhmudova, Lyazzat and Mussina, Ainur and Abdullayeva, Assel and Birimbayeva, Lyazzat and Tursyngali, Marzhan and Imamova, Bakyt and Dautalieva, Makpal and Buralkhiyev, Sagi and Vangelis, Harris},
  title = {Reaction of Minimum Streamflow of Arid Kazakhstan Rivers to Climate Non-Stationarity},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13020062},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13020062}
}