El-Yazidi et al. (2026) Climate Change Projections: Application of the Statistical Downscaling Model in the Souss-Massa Watershed

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-10
• Authors: Maryame El-Yazidi, Mohammed Benabdelhadi, Brahim Benzougagh, Yasmine Boukhlouf, Manal El Garouani, Malika El-Hamdouny, Hassan Tabyaoui, Zineb El Attar Soufi, Abderrahim Lahrach, Khaled Mohamed Khedher
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13030090

Research Groups

Not provided in the paper text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed historical (1982–2022) and projected future (2025–2099) climate variability in the semi-arid Souss-Massa watershed, finding a statistically significant increase in mean annual temperature historically and projecting substantial future warming and precipitation decreases, indicating a trend towards arid conditions.

Objective

• To analyze historical climate variability (1982–2022) and project future climate change (2025–2099) in the Souss-Massa watershed, focusing on precipitation and temperature trends.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Souss-Massa watershed, Morocco, specifically at five meteorological stations: Agadir, Amaghouz, Amsoul, Aoulouz, and Taroudant.
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis: 1982–2022 (41 years). Future projections: 2025–2099 (75 years). Calibration period: 1982–2001. Validation period: 2002–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Trend analysis: Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator.
  • Future projections: Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM v4.2.9) with outputs from the CanESM2 Global Climate Model.
• Data sources:
  • Annual precipitation and temperature data collected from five meteorological stations (Agadir, Amaghouz, Amsoul, Aoulouz, Taroudant).
  • Global Climate Model (CanESM2) outputs under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

Main Results

• Historical Trends (1982–2022):
  • Mean annual temperature showed a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) across all stations, ranging from +0.28 °C per decade (Agadir) to +0.45 °C per decade (Taroudant).
  • Precipitation showed a decreasing trend, but it was not statistically significant (p > 0.05).
• Model Performance:
  • Calibration and validation periods were satisfactory, with high coefficients of determination (R² > 0.6) for temperature and moderate values (R² = 0.5–0.6) for precipitation.
• Future Projections (2025–2099):
  • Mean temperature is projected to increase significantly, ranging from +4.8 °C to +8.7 °C by 2099, depending on the station's location and emission scenario.
  • Precipitation is projected to decrease under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, with stronger decreases under RCP 8.5. Coastal regions are projected to experience the largest decreases, with Agadir showing a potential decrease of up to −53.8%.
  • All projections indicate a clear trend towards more arid conditions in the Souss-Massa watershed.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of both historical climate variability and future climate change projections specifically for the Souss-Massa watershed, a semi-arid region highly dependent on agriculture.
• Quantifies regional temperature increases and precipitation decreases, highlighting the vulnerability of the area to climate change.
• Emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive water resources management and improvement of ensemble models for climate projections in the region.

Funding

Not provided in the paper text.

Citation

@article{ElYazidi2026Climate,
  author = {El-Yazidi, Maryame and Benabdelhadi, Mohammed and Benzougagh, Brahim and Boukhlouf, Yasmine and Garouani, Manal El and El-Hamdouny, Malika and Tabyaoui, Hassan and Soufi, Zineb El Attar and Lahrach, Abderrahim and Khedher, Khaled Mohamed},
  title = {Climate Change Projections: Application of the Statistical Downscaling Model in the Souss-Massa Watershed},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13030090},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13030090}
}