Guan et al. (2026) A Study on the Discrimination Criteria and the Formation Mechanism of the Extreme Drought-Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-10
• Authors: Xuewen Guan, Wei Li, Jianping Bing, Xianyan Chen
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13040112

Research Groups

[Not explicitly stated in the provided text.]

Short Summary

This study addressed research gaps in extreme drought-runoff in the Yangtze River Basin by establishing quantitative discrimination criteria and exploring formation mechanisms. It found that meteorological factors (low precipitation, high temperatures) are the primary drivers, with large-scale reservoirs playing a secondary role in alleviating impacts during the non-flood season.

Objective

• To establish quantitative discrimination criteria for extreme drought-runoff in the Yangtze River Basin.
• To analyze the meteorological characteristics associated with extreme drought-runoff events.
• To explore the formation mechanisms of extreme drought-runoff in the basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.
• Temporal Scale: 1956–2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Pearson-III frequency analysis, Meteorological Drought Comprehensive Index, partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression.
• Data sources: Discharge data from four mainstream hydrological stations, meteorological data from 171 stations.

Main Results

• A basin-wide three-level quantitative discrimination criterion for drought-runoff was innovatively proposed, based on the June–November flow frequency of key mainstream stations.
• Basin-wide extreme drought-runoff events were identified in 2006 and 2022.
• Severe drought-runoff events occurred in 1972 and 2011.
• Relatively severe drought-runoff events were noted in 1959, 1992, and 2024.
• Typical extreme drought-runoff events were characterized by sustained low precipitation and high temperatures.
• Meteorological factors were identified as the primary driver of drought-runoff during June–September.
• Reservoir operation and riverine water intake played secondary roles in drought-runoff formation.
• The large-scale reservoir group (53 key control reservoirs) in the Yangtze River Basin helped alleviate drought-runoff impacts from December to May (non-flood season) through water supplementation.

Contributions

• Innovatively proposed a basin-wide three-level quantitative discrimination criterion for drought-runoff, integrating basin-scale hydrological coherence and seasonal drought characteristics, distinguishing it from single-indicator drought identification methods.
• Provided a robust scientific basis for precise drought-runoff prediction and the development of targeted adaptation strategies in the Yangtze River Basin.

Funding

[Not explicitly stated in the provided text.]

Citation

@article{Guan2026Study,
  author = {Guan, Xuewen and Li, Wei and Bing, Jianping and Chen, Xianyan},
  title = {A Study on the Discrimination Criteria and the Formation Mechanism of the Extreme Drought-Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13040112},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13040112}
}