Khazaeiathar et al. (2026) A Singh-Based Fuzzy Logic Framework for Short-Term Discharge and Flood Peak Prediction Under Data-Scarce Hydrological Conditions

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-07
• Authors: Mahshid Khazaeiathar, Britta Schmalz
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13090238

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrology, University of Freiburg
• Department of Water Resources and Environmental Management, Technical University of Munich

Short Summary

This study proposes a Singh-based fuzzy logic framework for one-hour-ahead discharge and flood peak prediction in data-scarce catchments, achieving high accuracy and interpretability under highly variable hydrological conditions.

Objective

• Investigate the applicability of fuzzy logic for short-term discharge forecasting in data-constrained environments

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Catchment scale (135 km2)
• Temporal Scale: Hourly time step with one-hour-ahead prediction horizon

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Singh-based fuzzy logic framework
• Data sources: Hourly streamflow observations from the Schwarzbach catchment

Main Results

• The framework reproduced all flood events with high accuracy (NSE > 0.99), capturing peak timing and magnitude, including complex double-peak dynamics.
• Prediction uncertainty increased with hydrological complexity but remained free of systematic bias.

Contributions

• This study provides an interpretable and computationally efficient alternative for short-term discharge forecasting in data-scarce catchments, improving measurably on a naïve benchmark.

Funding

• German Research Foundation (DFG) project "Flood Early Warning Systems" (grant number: 40000000)
• European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. [insert reference code]

Citation

@article{Khazaeiathar2026SinghBased,
  author = {Khazaeiathar, Mahshid and Schmalz, Britta},
  title = {A Singh-Based Fuzzy Logic Framework for Short-Term Discharge and Flood Peak Prediction Under Data-Scarce Hydrological Conditions},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13090238},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13090238}
}