Mackay et al. (2026) From Teleconnections to Weather Patterns: Drivers of Dry and Wet Extremes Across Great Britain

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-08
• Authors: Ailsa Mackay, Jessica Dimond, Nishant Gaur, Lindsay C. Beevers
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13090240

Research Groups

• Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)
• University of Reading
• National Oceanography Centre (NOC)

Short Summary

This study examines the association between large-scale atmospheric teleconnections, synoptic weather patterns, and monthly streamflow extremes in 131 catchments across Great Britain. The results show that weather patterns are more effective predictors of extreme occurrence than teleconnections.

Objective

• Investigate the statistical relationship between circulation patterns, weather patterns, and streamflow extremes in Great Britain

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering 131 catchments across Great Britain
• Temporal Scale: Monthly time step for streamflow data and daily time step for atmospheric variables

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multiple linear regression models with lagged correlation analysis
• Data sources: Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI-1) from 131 catchments, ERA5 reanalysis data for atmospheric variables

Main Results

• Weather patterns are more effective predictors of extreme occurrence than teleconnections, explaining up to adjusted R2 = 0.56 of the variance in extreme occurrence
• Distinct anticyclonic circulation is associated with dry extremes and cyclonic, westerly circulation with wet extremes
• Wet extremes show greater spatial coherence and better explained by weather patterns, whereas dry extremes are more regionally heterogeneous

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the climatic associations of hydrological extremes in Great Britain, improving understanding of the relationships between atmospheric circulation patterns and streamflow variability
• The findings have implications for water-resource management across Great Britain, providing precursor information relevant to decision-making

Funding

• NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) - NE/N018983/1
• UKRI (UK Research and Innovation) - MR/S01923/1

Citation

@article{Mackay2026From,
  author = {Mackay, Ailsa and Dimond, Jessica and Gaur, Nishant and Beevers, Lindsay C.},
  title = {From Teleconnections to Weather Patterns: Drivers of Dry and Wet Extremes Across Great Britain},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13090240},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13090240}
}