Yi et al. (2026) Analysis of the Drivers of Water-Level Changes in the Yamdrok Lake Basin During 2000–2023

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-12
• Authors: Zhaocai Yi, Tongliang Gong, Cidan Yangzong, Qingqin Bai, Piaopiao Hu, Xiaoxian Li, Lei Li, Helin Qin, Shuyi He, Hanwen Liu
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13090246

Research Groups

• Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITPR), Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment and Disaster Prevention, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Colorado Boulder

Short Summary

This study investigates the drivers of lake-level changes in Yamdrok Lake during 2000–2023 using a combination of hydrological, meteorological, remote-sensing, and hydropower-operation data. The results show that temperature is the fundamental driver of the long-term lake-level decline.

Objective

• Investigate the mechanisms underlying the sharp decline in Yamdrok Lake's water level since 2005
• Quantify the relative statistical explanatory power of climate change and human activities on lake-level fluctuations

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on Yamdrok Lake in the southern Tibetan Plateau
• Temporal Scale: 24 years (2000–2023), with a focus on the period after 2005

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multiple linear regression, Shapley R2 decomposition
• Data sources: Hydrological data from Yamdrok Lake, meteorological data from nearby weather stations, remote-sensing data for glacier area and lake level, hydropower-operation data from the local power plant

Main Results

• The annual mean water level of Yamdrok Lake declined significantly during 2000–2023, with a cumulative decrease of 5.1 m and an accelerated decline after 2005.
• Temperature increased significantly at a rate of 0.03 °C yr−1 (p < 0.05) and constituted the fundamental driver of the long-term lake-level decline.
• During the hydropower-operation period (2000–2014), the five factors jointly explained 84.51% of the variance in interannual lake-level changes, with hydropower operation intensity (32.32%), temperature (27.98%), and glacier meltwater (26.54%) being the three largest contributors.
• During the non-operation period (2015–2023), temperature consistently remained the most important individual contributor, accounting for 34.3–49.5% of the explained variance.

Contributions

This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of lake-level changes in Yamdrok Lake and clarifies the temporal shift in dominant drivers. The results have significant implications for lake-water-resource security assessment and climate-change adaptation on the Tibetan Plateau.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41830537)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences' Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA2006010301)

Citation

@article{Yi2026Analysis,
  author = {Yi, Zhaocai and Gong, Tongliang and Yangzong, Cidan and Bai, Qingqin and Hu, Piaopiao and Li, Xiaoxian and Li, Lei and Zheng, Hao and Qin, Helin and He, Shuyi and Liu, Hanwen},
  title = {Analysis of the Drivers of Water-Level Changes in the Yamdrok Lake Basin During 2000–2023},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13090246},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13090246}
}