Chen et al. (2026) Evaluating the Combined Impacts of Anthropogenic Disturbances and Climate Change on Future Streamflow Variations in the Minjiang River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-12
• Authors: Minghao Chen, Taihua Wang, Cong Li
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13090247

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University
• School of Hydraulic Engineering, Yangtze River Water Resources Committee

Short Summary

This study coupled a geomorphology-based ecohydrological model with machine learning models to project future streamflow variations in the Minjiang River basin under climate change scenarios. The results indicate significant decreases in future streamflow due to combined effects of anthropogenic disturbances and climate change.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on streamflow variations in the Minjiang River basin

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Basin-scale analysis of the Minjiang River basin (MRB)
• Temporal Scale: 2020–2099, with the 2010s as the baseline period

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Geomorphology-Based Ecohydrological Model (GBEHM) coupled with Physics-aware Hybrid Learning and eXtreme Gradient Boosting models
• Data sources: CMIP6 climate models, satellite data, observation data, and reanalysis data from the 2010s

Main Results

• Decadal mean streamflow at Zipingpu station will decrease by 2.73–12.16% before 2069 and increase thereafter
• Decadal mean streamflow at Gaochang station will generally increase by 1.44–13.67% after 2020
• Decadal mean streamflow at Pengshan station will increase by 13.22–36.41% over the coming decades
• Combined effects of anthropogenic disturbances and climate change will decrease future streamflow by 61.91–112.16 m3/s on average, corresponding to a reduction of 14.08–25.51% from the baseline

Contributions

• This study provides a preliminary assessment of streamflow variations in the MRB under climate change scenarios, highlighting the importance of considering both climatic and anthropogenic influences.
• The results suggest strategies for mitigating future water risks and enhancing basin management in the MRB.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51979227)
• Yangtze River Water Resources Committee Research Fund (Grant No. YR2021001)

Citation

@article{Chen2026Evaluating,
  author = {Chen, Minghao and Chen, Kaijie and Wang, Taihua and Li, Cong},
  title = {Evaluating the Combined Impacts of Anthropogenic Disturbances and Climate Change on Future Streamflow Variations in the Minjiang River Basin},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13090247},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13090247}
}