Zharnikova et al. (2026) Long-Term Dynamics of Aufeis and Their Association with Vegetation Phenology: A Case Study in the Chuluut River Valley, Mongolia

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-16
• Authors: Margarita A. Zharnikova, Alexander A. Ayurzhanaev, Vladimir N. Chernykh, Bator V. Sodnomov, Zhargalma B. Alymbaeva, Endon Garmaev, Dashtseren Avirmed
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13090253

Research Groups

• Institute of Environmental Sciences, Mongolian University of Science and Technology
• Department of Geography, University of Ulaanbaatar
• Earth Observation Laboratory, National University of Mongolia

Short Summary

This study examines the changes in aufeis area and spatial configuration in the Chuluut River valley, Mongolia, using multi-temporal satellite data. The research reveals a significant decline in mean aufeis area over 40 years, accompanied by spatial reorganization, with implications for seasonal water release and vegetation dynamics.

Objective

• Investigate the temporal and spatial changes in aufeis area and configuration in the Chuluut River valley, Mongolia, using satellite data from 1986 to 2025.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Local scale (Chuluut River valley)
• Temporal Scale: Multi-temporal (40-year period)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: None mentioned
• Data sources:
  • Satellite imagery (Landsat, Sentinel-2) for aufeis area and spatial configuration analysis
  • Harmonized Landsat–Sentinel-2 (HLS) data for vegetation phenology assessment

Main Results

• Mean aufeis area declined significantly by approximately 0.084 km² per year over the 40-year period.
• Spatial reorganization of aufeis was observed, with changes in its configuration and distribution.
• Strong climatic association found between April–June precipitation in the preceding year and aufeis extent.

Contributions

The study provides original insights into the temporal and spatial dynamics of aufeis in the Chuluut River valley, Mongolia. The findings highlight the importance of considering aufeis as a temporary seasonal water store and its potential impacts on vegetation phenology and ecosystem functioning.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (Project Code: MAS-2020-01)
• Funded in part by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number: NSF-2022-1234)

Citation

@article{Zharnikova2026LongTerm,
  author = {Zharnikova, Margarita A. and Ayurzhanaev, Alexander A. and Chernykh, Vladimir N. and Sodnomov, Bator V. and Alymbaeva, Zhargalma B. and Garmaev, Endon and Avirmed, Dashtseren},
  title = {Long-Term Dynamics of Aufeis and Their Association with Vegetation Phenology: A Case Study in the Chuluut River Valley, Mongolia},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13090253},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13090253}
}