Tang et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Associated Factors Identification of Meteorological Drought in Huaihe River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-19
• Authors: Shanshan Tang, Lei Guo, Qingqing Tian, Fei Wang
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13090255

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of meteorological droughts in the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) from 1982 to 2024, finding a slight aggravating trend and identifying air-specific humidity as a primary climatic driver.

Objective

• To clarify the spatiotemporal variations, non-linear abrupt changes, and multi-scale driving mechanisms of meteorological droughts within the Huaihe River Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Huaihe River Basin (HRB), China, including the Yishu-Si River (YSR), Shandong Peninsula and Coastal River (SPCR), Huai River Mainstream (HRMR), and Lixia River (LR) systems.
• Temporal Scale: 1982–2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-1), Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt Change, Seasonality, and Trend (BEAST), MMK–Hurst coupling, Three-Threshold Run Theory, and Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC).
• Data sources: Not explicitly stated, though the use of SPEI-1 and PWC implies the use of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and air-specific humidity data.

Main Results

• Drought Trends: A slight aggravating trend was observed across the basin (average trend rate of −0.000387), with more severe conditions and faster progression in the western region compared to the east.
• Extreme Events: 1988 was the driest year; the Yishu-Si River system experienced the most severe drought (SPEI-1 = −0.62).
• Abrupt Changes: Mutation points were identified in March 2001 for the seasonal component (74% probability) and September 1998 for the trend component (44.1% probability).
• Persistence: Drought evolution is overall persistent, indicated by a mean Hurst index of 0.70.
• Driving Factors: Air-specific humidity (AH) was identified as a dominant driver, exhibiting an Average Wavelet Coherence (AWC) of 0.94.

Contributions

• Established a multi-method coupled analytical framework (integrating BEAST, MMK-Hurst, and PWC) that provides theoretical support for regionalized drought early warning, water resource regulation, and disaster mitigation in the Huaihe River Basin.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Tang2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Tang, Shanshan and Guo, Lei and Tian, Qingqing and Wang, Fei},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Associated Factors Identification of Meteorological Drought in Huaihe River Basin},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13090255},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13090255}
}