Medetkhan et al. (2026) A Poly-Shock Sentinel-Node Framework for Scenario-Based Assessment of Water-Scarcity Risk in the Transboundary Talas River Basin Using GIS-WEAP

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-22
• Authors: Ainur Medetkhan, Alexander Neftissov, Ilyas Kazambayev, Lalita Kirichenko, Zhanuzak Abdibayev, Marat Bayandin
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13100261

Research Groups

• Institute of Water Problems, Almaty, Kazakhstan
• Department of Hydrology, University of California, Berkeley, USA

Short Summary

This study develops a poly-shock sentinel-node framework to assess water-scarcity risk in the Talas River Basin, Kazakhstan. The framework combines GIS-based spatial analysis and WEAP modeling to evaluate nine scenarios for 2026–2030.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of interacting stressors on water scarcity in the Talas River Basin

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Transboundary Talas River Basin, Kazakhstan
• Temporal Scale: 2026–2030

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model
• Data sources: GIS-based spatial analysis, satellite data, observation data, reanalysis data

Main Results

• Annual unmet demand in 2030 ranges from 5.98 million m3 yr−1 to 56.90 million m3 yr−1 across different scenarios.
• The Poly-Shock Sentinel Risk Score (PS-SRS) identifies sentinel nodes that are the first to experience water scarcity under each scenario.

Contributions

• This study introduces a novel poly-shock sentinel-node framework for assessing water-scarcity risk in transboundary river basins.
• The framework provides a case-specific node-level diagnostic that can be used jointly with annual unmet demand and the first threshold-crossing month.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant # [insert grant number]
• Kazakhstan Ministry of Education and Science Grant # [insert grant number]

Citation

@article{Medetkhan2026PolyShock,
  author = {Medetkhan, Ainur and Neftissov, Alexander and Kazambayev, Ilyas and Kirichenko, Lalita and Abdibayev, Zhanuzak and Bayandin, Marat},
  title = {A Poly-Shock Sentinel-Node Framework for Scenario-Based Assessment of Water-Scarcity Risk in the Transboundary Talas River Basin Using GIS-WEAP},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13100261},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13100261}
}