Villalba-Barrios et al. (2026) Estimating Drought Hydrographs for Different Return Periods Using Hydrological Records: Regulated and Natural Flow Regimes

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-24
• Authors: Andrés F. Villalba-Barrios, Óscar E. Coronado-Hernández, Modesto Pérez‐Sánchez
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13100264

Research Groups

• Hydrology Group, University of [Institution]
• Water Resources Department, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

Short Summary

This study proposes a probabilistic methodology to estimate drought hydrographs from observed discharge data, evaluating model calibration performance using RMSE and other metrics. The results highlight the impact of reservoir operation on river flow characteristics.

Objective

• Develop a probabilistic framework for estimating drought hydrographs under natural and regulated conditions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: River basin scale (catchment area: [insert value])
• Temporal Scale: Daily to annual time steps, with a focus on return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical probability distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Gamma) for drought hydrograph estimation
• Data sources: Observed discharge data from river gauging stations, with additional information on reservoir operation schedules and minimum flows recorded in the river

Main Results

• The methodology demonstrates good model calibration performance across return periods, with RMSE values ranging from 1.16 to 22.44 hm3.
• The regulated periods (2000–2025) show significant differences in valley time compared to natural hydrological conditions (42.86 days vs. 10.81 days).
• The 2011–2025 period exhibits the largest discrepancies between recorded and modelled volumes across return periods.

Contributions

• This study provides a novel probabilistic approach for estimating drought hydrographs under both natural and regulated conditions, addressing a critical knowledge gap in hydrological modeling.
• The results highlight the importance of considering reservoir operation schedules when assessing river flow characteristics.

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) through grant [insert reference code] and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) through grant [insert reference code].

Citation

@article{VillalbaBarrios2026Estimating,
  author = {Villalba-Barrios, Andrés F. and Coronado-Hernández, Óscar E. and Pérez‐Sánchez, Modesto},
  title = {Estimating Drought Hydrographs for Different Return Periods Using Hydrological Records: Regulated and Natural Flow Regimes},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13100264},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13100264}
}