Badawy et al. (2026) Accelerating Meteorological and Ecological Drought in Arid Coastal–Mountain System: A 72-Year Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Mount Elba Reserve Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

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Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-22
• Authors: Hesham Badawy, Jasem A. Albanai, Ahmed Hassan
• DOI: 10.3390/land15010202

Research Groups

• Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study assesses multi-decadal drought trends and vegetation responses in Egypt's Mount Elba (1950–2021), revealing a pervasive drying trajectory and a post-1990 regime shift towards persistent droughts, modulated by ENSO teleconnections.

Objective

• To conduct the first multi-decadal, spatio-temporal assessment (1950–2021) of drought trends and vegetation responses in Mount Elba, Egypt, integrating the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-6) with satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) along a coastal-highland transect.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale within Mount Elba, Egypt, covering a ten-grid coastal-highland transect.
• Temporal Scale: 72 years (1950–2021), with analysis of a post-1990 regime shift.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-6).
• Data sources: Satellite-derived vegetation responses (NDVI).

Main Results

• A pervasive drying trajectory of −0.42 SPEI units per decade was observed across Mount Elba.
• Vegetation–climate coherence (r ≈ 0.3, p < 0.05) intensified inland, where orographic uplift magnifies hydroclimatic stress.
• The southern highlands were identified as an "internal drought belt," while the coast experienced partial refuge due to maritime humidity.
• A significant post-1990 regime shift occurred, characterized by a breakdown of wet-season recovery and an increase in persistent droughts.
• This regime shift and drought patterns are modulated by ENSO teleconnections, representing the first quantitative attribution of Pacific climate signals to Egypt’s coastal mountains.

Contributions

• Provides the first multi-decadal, spatio-temporal assessment (1950–2021) of drought and vegetation responses in Mount Elba, integrating SPEI-6 and satellite-derived NDVI.
• Offers the first quantitative attribution of Pacific climate signals (ENSO teleconnections) to Egypt’s coastal mountains.
• Reframes drought as a living ecological process rather than a statistical anomaly, emphasizing its ecological impacts.
• Positions Mount Elba as a sentinel landscape for understanding resilience and adaptation in northeast Africa’s rapidly warming drylands.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Badawy2026Accelerating,
  author = {Badawy, Hesham and Albanai, Jasem A. and Hassan, Ahmed},
  title = {Accelerating Meteorological and Ecological Drought in Arid Coastal–Mountain System: A 72-Year Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Mount Elba Reserve Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/land15010202},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land15010202}
}