Zhao et al. (2026) Assessing Cropland Water Deficit and Productivity-Loss Risk Through the Standardized Crop Water Deficit Index and Copula Analysis in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain, China

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Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-05-19
• Authors: Yuhan Zhao, Chun Dong, Yan Yang
• DOI: 10.3390/land15050872

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

The study developed a crop-oriented framework using a Standardized Crop Water Deficit Index (SCWDI) to quantify drought events and their impact on the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) of winter wheat and summer maize in China's Huang–Huai–Hai Plain.

Objective

• To create a drought assessment framework that explicitly accounts for crop water demand and irrigation input to identify crop-sensitive periods and quantify the probability and triggering thresholds of productivity (GPP) loss.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Huang–Huai–Hai Plain, China (with specific focus on the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and Henan).
• Temporal Scale: 2001–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Crop Water Deficit Index (SCWDI), run theory, monthly correlation analysis, and a Copula–Bayesian framework.
• Data sources: Crop water requirement, effective rainfall, irrigation supply, and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) data.

Main Results

• Drought Frequency: An average of 1.15 drought events occurred per year between 2001 and 2022.
• Sensitive Periods: The most critical periods for drought stress are June for summer maize and March–April for winter wheat.
• Productivity Thresholds: Summer maize is more sensitive to drought, with a GPP loss triggering threshold of −1.54, compared to winter wheat, which requires more severe stress (−2.54) to trigger concentrated loss.
• Regional Risk: In the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and Henan, the probability of summer-maize GPP loss exceeds 80% under extreme drought conditions.

Contributions

• Developed a specialized index (SCWDI) that improves upon regional drought indicators by integrating irrigation input and crop water demand.
• Established quantitative triggering thresholds for GPP loss, providing a scientific basis for growth-stage-oriented irrigation prioritization and spatially differentiated drought management.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhao2026Assessing,
  author = {Zhao, Yuhan and Dong, Chun and Yang, Yan},
  title = {Assessing Cropland Water Deficit and Productivity-Loss Risk Through the Standardized Crop Water Deficit Index and Copula Analysis in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain, China},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/land15050872},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land15050872}
}