Davaatseren et al. (2026) Soil Carbon Recovery and Hydrological Buffering in Mongolian Rangelands: Local Benefits and Limits of Earth-System Connectivity

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Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-07
• Authors: Enkhbayar Davaatseren, Tsolmon Sodnomdavaa, Sainbuyan Bayarsaikhan, Erkhetbayar Enkhbayar, Urtnasan Mandakh, Miyegombo Dorj
• DOI: 10.3390/land15081419

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the impact of soil organic carbon (SOC) restoration in Mongolian rangelands across local, basin, and Earth-system scales, concluding that while local hydrological benefits are present, they are undetectable at larger scales.

Objective

• To determine the scale at which SOC recovery and its associated hydrological co-benefits remain detectable in degraded drylands.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Local (220,966 ha rangeland in Öndörshireet soum, Central Mongolia), basin scale, and Earth-system scale.
• Temporal Scale: 20-year simulation period.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Cold-calibrated RothC model, Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation, machine-learning-assisted measurement support, and basin-scale mass-balance accounting.
• Data sources: Field measurements (baseline SOC), VM0042 deduction chain for carbon verification.

Main Results

• SOC Recovery: Baseline SOC was 28.27 tC ha⁻¹; projected 20-year gains ranged from 0.9 to 6.4 tC ha⁻¹ across rotational, fenced, and seeded–fenced strata.
• Carbon Mitigation: Emission-reduction rates were 0.33–2.19 tCO₂e ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, yielding approximately 10,900–12,200 verified carbon units per year.
• Local Hydrological Impact: SOC recovery increased plant-available water capacity by ≈0.09 mm, resulting in flow stabilization (reduced flash runoff, lower flood exceedance, and lower streamflow flashiness, with higher baseflow contribution).
• Scale Detectability: The hydrological signal is three to four orders of magnitude below interannual discharge variability at the basin scale and is non-measurable at the Earth-system scale.
• National Impact: While mitigation potential is substantial at the national scale, impacts on Arctic freshwater are negligible.

Contributions

• Establishes a framework that distinguishes credible local hydrological co-benefits from Earth-system over-attribution, preventing the overestimation of global freshwater or cooling effects in dryland carbon sequestration projects.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Davaatseren2026Soil,
  author = {Davaatseren, Enkhbayar and Sodnomdavaa, Tsolmon and Bayarsaikhan, Sainbuyan and Enkhbayar, Erkhetbayar and Mandakh, Urtnasan and Dorj, Miyegombo},
  title = {Soil Carbon Recovery and Hydrological Buffering in Mongolian Rangelands: Local Benefits and Limits of Earth-System Connectivity},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/land15081419},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land15081419}
}