Jiang et al. (2026) Impacts of Urbanization on Compound Heat and Drought Events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on Explainable Machine Learning

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Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-05
• Authors: Ping Jiang, Jianjun Wu, Lei Zhou, Ruimeng Tang, Jianhua Yang, Minghui Lu
• DOI: 10.3390/land15091649

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the impact of urbanization on compound heat and drought events (CHDEs) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, finding that urban expansion significantly increases the frequency, duration, and severity of these events.

Objective

• To evaluate the impacts of urbanization on the frequency, duration, and severity of CHDEs and to identify the key urban and climatic drivers using explainable machine learning.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region.
• Temporal Scale: Daily scale analysis with trends calculated per decade.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Daily scale analytical framework and explainable machine learning.
• Data sources: Meteorological data from urban and rural stations.

Main Results

• Urban Expansion: Rates ranged from 0.06% to 22.92% per decade in the BTH region.
• CHDE Trends: Frequency, duration, and severity increased by 0.11, 1.45, and 0.06 per decade, respectively.
• Urbanization Impact: Urban stations showed more pronounced upward trends than rural stations. Urbanization contributed 44.0% to the increase in duration, 39.1% to severity, and 33.6% to frequency.
• Key Drivers: Mean temperature ($T_{mean}$) and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect consistently intensified CHDEs. Building Volume (BV) and Urban Fraction (UrbF) had a stronger influence on duration and severity than on frequency.

Contributions

The study provides a quantitative assessment of how urbanization modulates compound extremes, specifically distinguishing the contributions of thermal conditions versus surface modifications (BV and UrbF) to different CHDE attributes.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Jiang2026Impacts,
  author = {Jiang, Ping and Wu, Jianjun and Zhou, Lei and Tang, Ruimeng and Yang, Jianhua and Lu, Minghui},
  title = {Impacts of Urbanization on Compound Heat and Drought Events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on Explainable Machine Learning},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/land15091649},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land15091649}
}