Wang et al. (2026) Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Change and Its Impacts on Ecosystem Services in Hubei Province, China

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Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-08
• Authors: Zhenwei Wang, Wenxuan Zhang, Yilei Wang, Xiaochun Wang
• DOI: 10.3390/land15091664

Research Groups

• Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University

Short Summary

This study assesses the future changes in ecosystem services under different land-use scenarios in Hubei Province, China, using a patch-generating land-use simulation model. The results highlight trade-offs between economic development, food security, and ecological protection.

Objective

• Investigate the impacts of land-use change on ecosystem services under multiple development scenarios

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 30 m resolution for ecosystem service assessments and 5 km/10 km grid scales for driving factor analysis
• Temporal Scale: 2000–2020 (historical period) and 2030/2040 (future scenarios)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model, InVEST-based modules, Spearman correlation analysis, Geographical Detector Model (GDM)
• Data sources: Satellite data, observation data, reanalysis datasets

Main Results

• From 2000 to 2020, cultivated land and forest land decreased, while construction land and water areas expanded; ecosystem services showed varying trends: GP increased, SC and WY improved, nitrogen export grew, and HQ declined.
• Under future scenarios (2030/2040), different development paths led to distinct changes in ecosystem services:
  • BAU and ED scenarios: GP increases, HQ and SC deteriorate, and nitrogen export rises
  • EC scenario: HQ and SC improve significantly, GP first decreases then increases, WY and nitrogen export decline

Contributions

• This study provides quantitative assessments of future ecosystem-service changes under multiple land-use scenarios, highlighting the need for reconciling economic development, food security, and ecological protection in Hubei Province.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41877044)
• Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (QYZDY-SSW-DQC013)

Citation

@article{Wang2026MultiScenario,
  author = {Wang, Zhenwei and Zhang, Wenxuan and Wang, Yilei and Wang, Xiaochun},
  title = {Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Change and Its Impacts on Ecosystem Services in Hubei Province, China},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/land15091664},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land15091664}
}