Ouattab et al. (2026) Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trends of Precipitation and Climate Extremes over Morocco (1991–2020) Using Synoptic Observations’ Data

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Identification

• Journal: Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-22
• Authors: Meriem Ouattab, H. Charifi, R. Moustabchir, Albin Ullmann, Pascal Roucou, Fouad Gadouali
• DOI: 10.3390/meteorology5030020

Research Groups

• Direction Générale de la Météorologie (DGM), Morocco

Short Summary

This study analyzes precipitation trends and extremes in Morocco from 1991 to 2020, revealing a general decline in rainfall and a structural shift toward more episodic, intense events in the north and overall weakening in the south.

Objective

• To provide an integrated assessment of the spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and its extremes across Morocco during the 1991–2020 climate-normal period.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National (Morocco), based on 31 synoptic stations.
• Temporal Scale: 1991–2020 (30 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Mann–Kendall test (trend quantification), Sen’s slope estimator, and ETCCDI indices (Consecutive Dry Days [CDDs], Simple Daily Intensity Index [SDII], and precipitation from very wet days [R95pTOT]).
• Data sources: Daily precipitation observations from 31 synoptic stations operated by the Direction Générale de la Météorologie (DGM).

Main Results

• General Trends: Predominance of negative precipitation trends, particularly during winter and early spring (most pronounced in February), partially offset by wetting in November across central and eastern Morocco.
• Regional Divergence:
  • Northern Morocco: Increased length of dry spells (CDDs) coinciding with intensified extreme rainfall events.
  • Southern Morocco: Generalized weakening of both rainfall intensity and extremes.
• Structural Shift: The wet season is starting later and ending earlier, with rainfall becoming more concentrated into fewer but more intense events.

Contributions

• Establishes an updated observational baseline for the validation of CMIP6-based regional climate projections and provides critical data for designing climate-resilient agricultural and water management strategies in Morocco.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ouattab2026SpatioTemporal,
  author = {Ouattab, Meriem and Charifi, H. and Moustabchir, R. and Ullmann, Albin and Roucou, Pascal and Gadouali, Fouad},
  title = {Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trends of Precipitation and Climate Extremes over Morocco (1991–2020) Using Synoptic Observations’ Data},
  journal = {Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/meteorology5030020},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology5030020}
}