Beisenova et al. (2026) Hydroclimatic Variability and Water Balance Instability in Semi-Arid Steppe Ecosystems Under Climate Warming

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Identification

• Journal: Resources
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-23
• Authors: Raikhan Beisenova, Ainur Orkeyeva, Anar Rakhmetova, Жанар Рахымжан, Rumiya Tazitdinova
• DOI: 10.3390/resources15080097

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes hydroclimatic variability in the Akmola region from 2003 to 2023, finding that rising temperatures and increasing evapotranspiration are intensifying moisture deficits and drought vulnerability.

Objective

• To investigate hydroclimatic variability, water balance dynamics, and drought conditions in the Akmola region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Akmola region (monitored via 16 meteorological stations).
• Temporal Scale: 2003–2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: FAO-56 Penman–Monteith (for reference evapotranspiration), 12-month Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12), Mann–Kendall test, and Sen’s slope estimator.
• Data sources: Observational data from 16 meteorological stations.

Main Results

• Temperature and ET0: Air temperature showed a consistent increasing trend, leading to higher atmospheric evaporative demand, particularly in the southern and central parts of the region.
• Water Balance: The region exhibits a persistent moisture deficit, with a mean annual climatic water balance of approximately −750 mm.
• Drivers of Variability: Precipitation is the dominant control of water balance variability (r = 0.79–0.96), though rising temperatures exacerbate deficits via increased evapotranspiration.
• Drought: SPEI-12 analysis indicates recurrent drought episodes and an increase in drought vulnerability linked to warming.

Contributions

• Identifies increasing evapotranspiration as a primary driver of water stress in the Akmola region.
• Highlights the necessity of integrating climatic water balance and SPEI indicators for effective drought monitoring and climate adaptation in semi-arid steppe environments.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Beisenova2026Hydroclimatic,
  author = {Beisenova, Raikhan and Orkeyeva, Ainur and Rakhmetova, Anar and Рахымжан, Жанар and Tazitdinova, Rumiya},
  title = {Hydroclimatic Variability and Water Balance Instability in Semi-Arid Steppe Ecosystems Under Climate Warming},
  journal = {Resources},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/resources15080097},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15080097}
}